The Porch Report's 1st Annual March Madness Bracket

Folks, it's bracket season. It's all anybody is gonna talk about the next few weeks. Here at the Porch Report we decided to return after a brief hiatus to bring you another bracket to talk about because your bracket you have in your pool will be busted today. To be honest -I don't really know what the theme of this bracket is other than college basketball players. Some of them I hated, some I liked, some hit big shots in the tournament. Some seemed like they were in school forever. Others had great names. I guess I'll go with " Memorable College Basketball Players".

Who ya got?

It's Been A While

After a great win in East Lansing last weekend, the Badgers will be on the road again this week when they play #4 Michigan. Now, since a lot of our readers in the state of Wisconsin may have forgotten that Michigan football is actually in the Big Ten, I thought I'd give everyone a refresher as to who this mysterious team you'll see on the field on Saturday is. After all, it's been 6 years since the Badgers have played a football game against Michigan. Just to remind everyone of how long ago that was, here's a highlight film of that game.

 

I was at that game. I wasn't even old enough to drink yet. Rich Rod was the coach of Michigan. JJ Watt was still in college. That was forever ago. As Wisconsin fans, we missed out on the entire Brady Hoke era, and for Michigan fans, you somehow missed out on the entire Joel Stave era. All that being said, here's a few answers to some questions that you may have about this week's opponent:

Where is the University of Michigan? Believe it or not, it's in the state of Michigan! More specifically, it's located in Ann Arbor.

Wisconsin is the Badgers, what is Michigan called? They are the Wolverines.

What are Michigan's school colors? They're yellow and blue, although they call it maize and blue. 

You mentioned that Rich Rod was the coach the last time Michigan played Wisconsin, and that we missed out on the Brady Hoke era, who is their current coach?

That guy. 

For any other questions you may have in order to familiarize yourself with this week's opponent, follow this link for some additional reading:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_Wolverines_football 

Now on to this week's picks:

Wisconsin (+10.5) at Michigan- I couldn't believe that line when I saw it. That's fine. Let everybody disrespect the Badgers again. They'll be just fine proving everybody wrong. This game is gonna be a battle. Michigan hasn't had a test yet, they'll get one this week. Regardless of who actually wins, this one stays within 10 easily. 

Stanford (+3) at Washington ( Friday night) - Last weeks #Pac12AfterDark Friday special was a good one between USC and Utah, this one should be as well. The Huskies haven't really played anyone yet but are somehow in the top 10. They struggled last week against an average Arizona team. Like Michigan, this is their first real test of the season. I just think Stanford is the better team and should get the road win. 

LSU (-13) vs Missouri- Les Miles just got fired and now Ed Orgeron steps in.Gotta credit Barstool with the tip on this one. My favorite gambling theory I've learned about listening to Barstool podcasts is that you don't bet against a hardo interim coach in their first game. That would apply in this situation. I trust Big Cat's advice on this one: http://www.barstoolsports.com/chicago/interim-ed-already-making-an-impact-orgeron-fires-cam-cameron-and-walks-to-work-to-show-how-tough-he-is/comment-page-1/  

Louisville (-2) at Clemson- Clemson just doesn't seem to have everything clicking right now, while Louisville has been unstoppable. The home night game atmosphere will help Clemson, and I think this is gonna be one of the best games of the year. I'll go with Lamar Jackson over Deshaun Watson, Louisville wins it by a field goal. 

Bones Guarantee of the Week: Western Michigan (-3.5) at Central Michigan- Big MAC showdown here. The Broncos have been on a roll with 2 wins over Big Ten teams this year, while the Chippewas let me down last week against previously winless Virginia. I think the Broncos will keep it rolling and get a quality road win to kick off MACtion. 

Here We Go

It has arrived. Badger fans, we now enter the stretch we all circled on the schedule. Michigan State. Michigan. Ohio State. Iowa. Nebraska. It's time. The most brutal 5-game stretch I've ever seen on a Badger schedule. Amazingly, we were able to upset LSU and are sitting at 3-0 after surviving last week's near-debacle against Georgia State.

As much as I'd like to see the Badgers go 5-0 during this stretch, I know that's not realistic (if it does happen, start booking your playoff trips). They still can win the West division, however, and make a trip to Indy in December. Here's how. They need to win one of the three between Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State. Of those three, I think this week's game is probably the best chance, although Oct. 15 is gonna be an electric atmosphere at Camp Randall and crazy things can happen in night games against Ohio State in Mid-October (2010). Then they need to beat Iowa and Nebraska. Doing that and taking care of business in November against weaker teams (although at Northwestern is never easy) would put the Badgers at 10-2. Pretty damn good record with this schedule. They'll also need a little help with another conference loss from Iowa and Nebraska. Iowa does have to play Michigan and Nebraska has to travel to Ohio State, so there's a very good possibility the West can be won with 2 conference losses. So get ready, as tough as it's gonna be, it's finally good to have a season where there's games to actually be excited about week in and week out.

All that being said-can't afford to play anywhere near the level the Badgers played last week. Turnovers and settling for field goals in the red zone isn't gonna get it done. It looks like Alex Hornibrook is going to be taking over at QB for Bart Heisman, and I'm fine with that. From what I've seen he looks like the better QB and hopefully he can finally bring some consistency to that position. It's gonna be tough making his first career start in East Lansing (my least favorite place in the Big Ten), but I think it's the right call. I expect this to be a fairly low scoring game. It's an early kickoff on BTN for some reason (no respect for the Big Ten), and both teams have good defenses. The Badgers are going to need to get their running game going. Corey Clement is currently questionable-it would definitely help to have him on Saturday but at the same time you don't want to jeopardize the rest of his season if he's not ready to go yet. The last several Wisconsin-Michigan State games have been classics, hopefully this trip to East Lansing ends better than the last time. (I hate Kirk Cousins).

On to this weeks picks.

Last week's record: 3-1-1 (1-1 in the bonus picks). Got an incredible back door cover by Ole Miss, got a push with Oregon (Nebraska might be for real this year), and was dead wrong on Notre Dame. Their defense is terrible.

There's some decent games but nothing that really stands out. College Gameday is going to Tennessee for Florida-Tennessee which is the 2:30 CBS game, the ABC night game is Stanford at UCLA. Penn State at Michigan got the 2:30 ABC slot (should've been Wisconsin-MSU, will be a much closer game).

Utah (-3) vs USC (Friday Night)- I haven't been wrong going against USC yet this year so I'll keep riding that train again this week.

Oklahoma State at Baylor Over 74- this is gonna be your classic Big 12 shootout with very little defense played, over 74 should be no problem.

Central Michigan (-3.5) at Virginia-Virginia is awful this year. Central Michigan was able to stay with Oklahoma State on the road (technically shouldn't have won but they did) so they should be able to beat the Cavaliers, who already have losses to Richmond and UConn on their resume.

Pitt (+7) at North Carolina-Pitt's offense has been pretty good this year. They've been in shootouts the last 2 weeks, I think they'll get a road win at Carolina. The over in this one (67) is also worth a look.

Bones Guarantee of the Week- Florida State (-5) at South Florida- I know I mentioned in my preview that the Bulls could give FSU a tough time in this one-but after Lamar Jackson ran all over the Noles last week there's no way they let that happen two weeks in a row. They'll be prepared. USF will likely keep it competitive at halftime but the Noles should pull away.

Week 3: Remembering the XFL and Saturday Picks

A few days ago, I saw one of the greatest clips I've ever seen show up on twitter. It brought back memories of the glory days of football, long before concussion protocol was a phrase you heard every 15 minutes on Sundays. It was a clip from the greatest sports league to only last one season-the XFL. This clip made me wonder what could've been had the XFL made it. Combining football with the WWE, it doesn't get more electric than that. If only the XFL could've played good football. Most games weren't that competitive which had a big part in its downfall. But the idea was great. Here's the video below-unbelievable. Best part is the end. I'd be ready to run through a brick wall after that pregame interview. (FYI that's current Western Kentucky coach Jeff Brohm).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

My favorite part of the XFL was they didn't do a coin toss. They'd have each team pick their fastest guy and they'd have to race each other and battle for control of a football that was sitting at midfield. I can't think of better way to decide who gets possession first. You should have to earn it.  

I had to include this clip (video wouldn't post by itself so just follow the link)-just amazing. Felt like a segment on Monday Night Raw more than a football game. (Brief appearance by Tommy Maddox, who went on to take the Steelers to the playoffs). I'd love to see that 3-man booth of JR, The Rock and Jesse Ventura calling football games today. It'd beat the hell out of having to listen to Jim Nantz or Joe Buck on a Sunday afternoon. As the Rock said, there were no candy-ass jabronis in the XFL. 

I also can't talk about the XFL without mentioning "He Hate Me". XFL players could put whatever they wanted on the back of their jerseys, and this was the best one. Much better football name than his actual name, Rod Smart. He was also one of the XFL's better players, did end up spending time in the NFL after.

  

The XFL played during the NFL's offseason, which should've been perfect. Watching mediocre football players beat the shit out of each other would've been great entertainment during those months without the NFL or college football. But, it's gone forever. We'll have that one year of memories and thanks to the pussification of America we'll probably never see anything like it again. 

Thankfully, we're right in the midst of real football season. After a pretty weak slate of college games last week, we've got a great Saturday for week 3. It starts with Florida State traveling to Louisville at 11 AM. Louisville has blown out two bad teams in Charlotte and Syracuse and Lamar Jackson has looked like the Heisman frontrunner so far. He'll finally get a test this weekend. I don't think we'll be seeing him score 3 touchdowns in 5 minutes like he did last week vs Syracuse. Another sneaky interesting early game is 5-time defending FCS champ North Dakota State traveling to Iowa. Next on the slate at 2:30 is Alabama traveling to Ole Miss. The Rebels have beaten Saban the last two years and really need a win after falling apart in the second half against Florida State in the opener. Plenty of options with the night games: Michigan State vs. Notre Dame, USC vs Stanford, and the biggest one: Ohio State at Oklahoma. This is an absolute must win for the Sooners. Their playoff hopes are slim already after losing to Houston, but they'll be dead if they don't beat Ohio State. The Big 12 has looked pretty bad so far, so there might not be many conference games that will help their resume. This is a rare on-campus matchup between major programs so it should be fun to watch. I'm also assuming Gus Johnson will be on the call since the game's on FOX, that's an added bonus.

On to the picks. Last week I went 3-1, was dead wrong on Kentucky. App State won easily, got the under in the Miss State-South Carolina, and Washington State covered. Would've been nice if Kentucky wasn't the one game I actually bet on. 

Ole Miss (+10.5) vs. Alabama-I know it's not smart to bet against Alabama-but Ole Miss is the one team that has their number. It's at home-even if the Rebels don't win they'll keep it within a touchdown. 

Notre Dame (-8) vs Michigan State- I might be reading too much into one game, but the Spartans did not look good in their opener against Furman. I don't think they'll be able to keep up with Notre Dame's offense, assuming the Irish stick with Deshone Kizer the whole game. 

Oregon (+3) at Nebraska-  This is primarily because I won't believe Nebraska can win a big game until I see it. Even though the Huskers are off to a hot start I don't trust my money with Tommy Armstrong. The over is also a tempting bet at 74, should be plenty of points in this one.

Stanford (-8.5) vs USC- Stanford had a bye last week, so I think they'll win this one easily after getting extra time to break down the film of Alabama destroying USC. Should win by double digits at home. 

Bones Guarantee of the Week (Pick I like that's definitely gonna be wrong)

South Florida (-14) at Syracuse-I'm pretty high on South Florida this year, they're off to a good start. Syracuse isn't very good but they get this one at home-I still think the Bulls should be able to win by two touchdowns. 

Bonus Picks-These games are too big to leave off the board, wouldn't bet em but I'll pick em. 

Florida State (-1.5) at Louisville-Lamar Jackson finally runs into a competent defense. This should be a back and forth game but I think the Noles pull away late.

Ohio State (-1.5) at Oklahoma -I'm really not sure how this game is gonna go-Oklahoma is gonna play desperate, and Ohio State is looking to make a statement. For some reason I think there's actually see a lot of mistakes and turnovers in this game. I'll go with the Big Ten and Ohio State. 

RIP SEC

After multiple trips to Rose Bowls,season openers in Texas,and other Big Ten stadiums all I've wanted to see is the Badgers win a big game that I traveled to. I did not expect Saturday to be the day, but I got one hell of a surprise. I did not think Wisconsin would beat LSU, who is stacked at just about every position except QB. Now I didn't think it was going to be a blowout (overheard an LSU fan say they'd win 42-0). I did think we'd cover but I didn't think we would realistically have a shot to win the game. I'm glad I was dead wrong. The Badgers dominated at Lambeau, if it weren't for 3 bad turnovers the score would've been at least 20-nothing. Now all of a sudden the Badgers are in the top 10.

Next up the Badgers have what should be a couple of warm-up games before beginning their brutal Big Ten stretch. The offense did move the ball fairly well on Saturday. They'll need to get better at avoiding turnovers and scoring in the red zone, these next two weeks should help Bart Houston get a little more comfortable with the offense, hopefully we'll see a few big plays and shots downfield once in a while. The defense looked awesome. Leonard Fournette had a couple big plays, but nobody is gonna completely shut him down and holding him to 138 yards is pretty damn good considering he was their entire offense. Losing Chris Orr for the season is gonna hurt but Ryan Connelly, who I had never heard of before Saturday, made some great plays and within a few weeks TJ Edwards should be back. 

As for the rest of the country-the SEC is currently on life support, being held up by Alabama. Saban completely dominated USC, leaving no doubt who the current #1 should be. As for the rest of the conference? Texas A&M and Georgia had decent wins, but after that it goes downhill. East favorite Tennessee needed OT to beat Appalachian State, Arkansas only beat Louisiana Tech by 1 point, Ole Miss was looking good until they blew a 22 point lead against Florida State,Florida struggled with UMass and Mississippi State lost at home to South Alabama. I didn't even mention a few other losses by the bottom of the conference. 

Game of the week goes to Texas-Notre Dame. I didn't feel like moving at all on Sunday night. One gameday weekend had my body feeling like I had been through a week of two-a-days. This game kept me awake. It had everything you could want and more. Two big name teams, lots of lead changes, and crazy plays. I can't remember the last time I've seen an extra point blocked and returned for two to tie the game. The good thing about college football-there's plenty more of these games to come. 

On to this week's picks- I went 3-1 last week (4-1 if you include my Bones Guarantee). I guess I should've given Nebraska a little more respect.

Kentucky (+17) at Florida-this is the 2:30 CBS game. Kentucky lost to Southern Miss to open the year, and Florida only beat UMass, one of the worst teams in the country by 17. The last couple of years this has been a really close game, Kentucky covers 17 easily.

Appalachian State (-2) vs Old Dominion-I don't know much about Old Dominion, but Appalachian State should have beaten Tennessee last week. Even though the SEC is on its deathbed, it still is several levels above the likes of Old Dominion. App State wins this one at home.

South Carolina vs Mississippi State Under 45-I watched most of the South Carolina-Vandy game-the Gamecocks have no offense. The Bulldogs don't have Dak Prescott anymore, they only could put up 20 against South Alabama. Most of the time I would agree with Big Cat over at Barstool that life's too short to bet the under-this game is an exception.

Washington State (+11) at Boise State-I know Wazzu lost to an FCS team last week. Guess what? They did the same thing to start last year. I still believe in the Cougars this year. This one will be a shootout, even if they can't get a win on the blue turf they'll keep it close.

Bones Guarantee of the Week (Pick I like but is definitely gonna be wrong)
Ohio (+3) at Kansas- There's no way Kansas hits the over for their win total in week 2, right?

That's it for this week, not a great slate of games compared to last week but you never know what's gonna happen. The primetime ABC game is Virginia Tech-Tennessee playing in a NASCAR stadium, could be interesting. Also I know the NFL kicks off this week, I was just too lazy to write anything about it. My apologies to those depending on my advice to win them money on Sunday.

2016 College Football Preview Part 2

                                                 Big 12

            Now on to the so-called “Power 5”. The Big 12 is the only one without a conference championship game and is looking to add a couple more teams so they don’t get shut out of the playoffs all the time. There still are a few contenders in this league, even though there is no defense played whatsoever. 90% of Big 12 games have overs that you won’t see in any other league. Texas Tech vs Baylor, over 90? Take the over. (Pretty much any game involving Texas Tech, the over is a safe bet. ).  This does make for some entertaining games. Oklahoma and TCU are the two teams everyone has at the top this year, for good reason. Oklahoma is coming off a playoff appearance. They’re ranked 3^rd to start the year, they return Heisman contender Baker Mayfield and the asshole who broke Melvin Gordon’s record after 1 week, Semaje Perine.  While I can definitely see them winning the conference, I don’t see them as a playoff team. A pretty tough nonconference schedule includes Houston and Ohio State, and I think they’ll lose at least once in conference.

            The Trevone Boykin era is over in TCU and Kenny Trill/Hill is expected to take over at QB. The Horned Frogs should have one of the better defenses in the Big 12 (which isn’t saying much) and have a more favorable schedule then Oklahoma. Outside of the top 2, there’s a cluster of teams that are really tough to rank. Baylor just went through a shitstorm this offseason, lost a bunch of recruits and have new coach. They still return talent in QB Seth Russell and RB Shock Linwood, amongst others and should still finish in the top half of the conference. I think an improved Texas team in Charlie Strong’s 3^rd season and Oklahoma State will round out the top half of this conference. The only teams in this conference I don’t see making bowl games are Iowa State and of course, Kansas. The most interesting thing about Kansas this year will be seeing if they hit the over for wins, which Vegas set at 1.5 after they went winless last year. They should beat FCS Rhode Island in week 1, but if they don’t beat Ohio (a bowl team last year) in week 2, that 2^nd win is gonna be tough to find.

The Pick: Despite TCU having a more favorable schedule, I still like Oklahoma to win the conference. October 1^st is when Oklahoma and TCU meet, and that game will probably be the one that decides this conference in the end.

                                                Pac-12

            The Pac-12 is one of my favorite conferences in college football. I don’t really like any specific team so much, I mainly like the Pac -12 because it brings us #Pac12AfterDark.  Just when you think the day of college football should be over, the Pac 12 brings us one more game that will usually go until about 1 or 2 am. For the degenerate gambler, if you had a bad day, it’s glory’s last shot. While the Pac-12 does provide plenty of shoot-outs, most defenses are better than those found in the Big 12, making the over/unders a little tougher to call.

            This year in the Pac-12 is going to be interesting. I only really see one team-Stanford as a true playoff contender, although their schedule to start is pretty brutal. Stanford has a game they should win, but won’t be easy in week 1 vs. Kansas State. After that, the schedule really doesn’t let up until Oct. 22 against Colorado. After getting through that tough early stretch, they’ll also have  a trip to Oregon waiting for them in November. Despite the schedule, Stanford is still the favorite because they have Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey put up ridiculous numbers last year and should make a return trip to NYC as a Heisman finalist this year.

            Oregon had a bit of a down year last year and after the Vernon Adams experiment last year are bringing in another FCS transfer QB.  The defense struggled last year, blew a huge lead against TCU in the Alamo Bowl, and now bring in Brady Hoke to be the savior at defensive coordinator. I’m not sure I see that going well, however maybe Hoke is better suited at coordinator.  A lot of people are high on Washington this year. There’s also a lot of people who are  high in Washington this year. They get a slight boost because of a really weak non-conference schedule (Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State) and did play pretty good defense last year. They ended up 7-6, which it seems like they are almost every year. I’ll bump them up to 9-3 but I still don’t see them making the Rose Bowl or even winning their division. One sleeper team I do like is Washington State. They won 9 games last year-while the schedule might make that tough to repeat, they’ll be a tough out. The Cougars will throw the ball 50 times a game like a typical Mike Leach team, and have a really good QB returning in Luke Falk.  I also am going to enjoy watching Gary Andersen and Oregon State go 3-9 this year.

            I see the South division being a 3-team race between UCLA, USC, and Utah. UCLA has sophomore Josh Rosen at QB, who a lot of people project to be a high draft pick when he enters. USC has lot of talent, (as always) including JuJu Smith-Schuster and Adoree Jackson but I think they’ll disappoint as usual. Utah will be strong on the offensive and defensive lines but is replacing a lot at the skill positions.

My pick: Stanford over UCLA in the championship game. Stanford has Christian McCaffrey, these other teams don’t.

                                                ACC

            This is going to be a 2-team race, and the two teams in the race happen to play in the same division. Oct. 29 is when Clemson travels to Florida State. This game will decide the conference. I really don’t see anyone else as a real threat to either of these teams. Clemson returns their backfield of Deshaun Watson (likely the Heisman favorite) and Wayne Gallman. Dalvin Cook is back at RB for Florida State, but they will likely be starting a freshman at QB in Deondre Francois. I’ve noticed people saying that this could be the first league to get two teams in the playoff, but I’m not buying it. There would really need to be a lot to happen before the committee would even consider that, and I don’t think the ACC is a strong enough conference to boost a resume of a division runner-up. As far as a sleeper team, Louisville is one to watch but they happen to play in the same division as FSU and Clemson.

            Whoever wins the other division is going to be a heavy underdog in the ACC championship game. North Carolina is a popular pick, but they’re gonna have to replace Marquise Williams at QB, who will be playing his final game with the Packers this week. I’ll go with Pittsburgh to win the coastal. Even though they are a perennial 6-6 team, I think they’ll ride the momentum of RB James Conner beating cancer and Pat Narduzzi is a really good coach.

My pick: Clemson over Pitt. This will be the year of Deshaun Watson (even though last year kinda was already).

                                                            SEC

            On to the SEC. I could make a bunch of jokes about how their fanbase is a bunch of  inbred, unintelligent hillbillies , but I’ll stay away from that so I don’t disrespect the 20% of their fanbase that aren’t.  The SEC does play pretty good football. The 2:30 game on CBS is usually a must-see game. For as good as the SEC is (primarily the west division), it’s getting a little tiring seeing Alabama win it every year. They’re the favorite again this year, ranked #1 in the country to start the season. They lose a lot from last year including Heisman winner Derrick Henry, but they just reload under Nick Saban. The only time in his life that he’s smiled is when he won the National Championship last year. Here’s what’s gonna happen: Alabama will lose a game in the first half of the year (likely to Ole Miss), slip in the rankings a little bit, and then they’ll beat LSU, run the table through the regular season, beat an overmatched SEC east division team in the conference championship, and wind up in the playoff. If that doesn’t happen I’ll be shocked. As for the rest of the conference, LSU is ranked highly to start the year. They’ve got one of the best NFL RB prospects in a long time in Leonard Fournette carrying the offense. And he will have to carry the offense, because ever since the great Matt Flynn left Baton Rouge, LSU’s quarterback play has been brutal and I don’t see it getting much better this season. It doesn’t help their playoff chances having to open up their season at Lambeau against a 4-star gunslinger like Bart Houston and Wisconsin.

            Ole Miss does have the best QB in the conference in Chad Kelly, they have an outside shot as well. They get Alabama at home this year on Sept. 17. Texas A&M is another sleeper. They’ll be lead by Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight at QB (who lit up Alabama in the Sugar Bowl a few years ago) and one of the best defensive players in the country in Myles Garrett.

            As far as the east division goes, Tennessee is the favorite, but by default. This division just isn’t that good. There’s a few new coaches in Kirby Smart at Georgia and Will Muschamp at South Carolina. I don’t think they’ll contend this year. Florida has a great defense but has no offense. At least for them, Treon Harris transferred so the quarterback play can’t possibly be worse than it was last year.  I feel like every August I hear that Tennessee is ready to make the next step, and they finish right around 8-4 or 7-5.  This year I think they’ll be better than that (in large part because of a weak division). Josh Dobbs and Jalen Hurd should be one of the best backfields in the country this year.

My Pick: Alabama over Tennessee in the championship game.  I’d love to see it be somebody else, but it’s just not smart to bet against Saban.

                                      Big Ten

            Now, finally we get to the best conference in college football. This conference is what football is all about. The heartland of America (I still don’t consider Maryland and Rutgers real Big Ten teams). History. Tradition. The original college football conference. Fans who get up to tailgate at the crack of dawn for 11 AM games because TV networks don’t think 10-6 defensive struggles are worthy of prime-time television. This is America. The experts had been down on the Big Ten for a while, but it is back and it is strong this year. This year the “experts” seem to be split on Ohio State and Michigan as the favorite. JT Barrett takes full control of the Ohio offense this year now that Cardale Jones doesn’t have to play school anymore. They do replace a lot of starters from last year’s team, but they’re similar to Alabama in how they don’t really rebuild, they reload. They also steal recruits. If Antonio Williams (4-star RB who decommitted from Wisconsin, now at Ohio State) gets any touches this year at Camp Randall an Oct. 15^th , I can’t wait to hear how loud those boos will be.

            Michigan will have one of the best defenses in the country, led by Jabrill Peppers. Harbaugh hasn’t publicly named his starting QB yet, however that probably won’t matter. He can seem to coach anybody up to be a serviceable starter. The magic he worked with Jake Rudock last year was pretty amazing, considering that Rudock was a pretty shitty QB at Iowa before 2015. Michigan State is pretty much the consensus #3 pick in the East. They’ll have a strong defense as always, but the offense will be the question mark this year. Connor Cook is finally gone so the QB job now falls to Tyler O’Conner, who did see some time last year when Cook was hurt. One thing in MSU’s favor is they have an extremely favorable home schedule in conference. Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State all have to travel to East Lansing (my least favorite place in the Big Ten, btw). Penn State couldn’t find a way to contend with Christian Hackenberg at QB (they couldn’t protect him), and I don’t see them really contending this year either. Saquon Barkley will be one of the better RBs in the conference, but that’s not enough to compete with Ohio State or Michigan in this division. I think Indiana has another 6-6 year in them, and like last year they will make some games with ranked teams interesting because of their offense. Maryland and Rutgers aren’t real Big Ten teams so that is all I’m going to say about them.

            The West division is wide open. The media’s favorite is Iowa. They do return several starters from last year’s team that got embarrassed at the Rose Bowl last year, including QB CJ Beathard and CB Desmond King. Luckily for them, Christian McCaffrey  doesn’t play in the Big Ten. They’ll have a good record this year with the help of a weak non-conference schedule. (Toughest opponent is actually North Dakota State, 5-time defending FCS champs). Nebraska is entering the 2^nd year of the Mike Riley era. They should be improved because I don’t think it’s possible to lose as many games via hail marys/crazy finishes the way they did last year. Tommy Armstrong is back but I don’t think he’s consistent enough to take this team to the next level. One game I’m really looking forward to is when the Huskers travel to Madison on Oct. 29^th. Already have Russell Wilson spoiling their Big Ten Debut, put up a 70-spot on them in the Big Ten Championship, Melvin Gordon breaking the single game rushing record in 3 quarters, and our fat kicker’s redemption kick last year. Can’t wait to see what the next chapter is in the battle for the Freedom Trophy.

            Northwestern was a strange team last year. They beat Stanford in the opener last year on their way to a 10-win season (should’ve been 9, Jazz Peavy caught that pass). They didn’t really look all that impressive but won games with defense and RB Justin Jackson, one of the better backs in the conference. They’ll play teams tough this year, but their wins will decrease. They have to travel to Iowa, Michigan State, and Ohio State this year. Minnesota will probably be a 6-6 or 7-5 bowl team this year, but that’s about it, because they’re Minnesota. That’s their ceiling. (Herbstreit picked them to win the division this year, which is crazy).They do have a little bit of stability at QB as Mitch Leidner returns this season. Illinois might actually be relevant now because of Lovie Smith, but it’ll likely be a few years before they’re actually competitive. It’ll also be nice as a fan to beat Lovie Smith annually again. For Purdue, this is likely the last shot for coach Darrell Hazell to make the Boilers competitive. He’s what the folks in the journalism biz call “on the hot seat”. West Lafayette is a tough place to win, but it can be done. Things were actually going pretty well for Purdue up until Scott Starks scooped up Kyle Orton’s fumble and took it to the house. But…that was about 12 years ago.

            Of course I had to save the best for last. The Wisconsin Badgers. All everyone has talked about this offseason is the schedule. It’s brutal. Opening up with LSU, and then starting conference play with Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern is probably the toughest stretch I’ve ever seen in the Big Ten. I included Northwestern because the game is in Evanston and the Badgers never win there, so I’ve chalked that one up as a loss. Bart Houston is the week 1 starter, and we’ll see how long that lasts. He played OK (not great by any means) against Illinois last year. This year he gets thrown right into the fire against LSU, but if anybody can do it, it’s a quarterback named Bart at Lambeau. Another brutal part of the opener is that last year’s DC Dave Aranda is now running the defense at LSU. I’d assume he knows the Badger offense pretty well, hopefully Paul Chryst has been working on some new tricks in the offseason. The running game last year was the worst I can remember seeing for a Wisconsin team. It should be better this year with a healthy Corey Clement. Receiver hasn’t been a real strong part of Wisconsin offenses lately, and now it’s time for Rob Wheelwright and Jazz Peavy to step up into bigger roles this year. They did show flashes of potential last year, now they’ll have to do it consistently. One thing I’m interested to see is if any freshman WRs see the field. WR Coach Ted Gilmore has apparently said they “hit the jackpot” with this year’s new receivers.  I expect to see some improvement from the offensive line this year, although Dan Voltz having to retire early because of injury will hurt. Their best lineman this year might end up being Ryan Ramczyk, a transfer from UW-Stevens Point.

            On the defensive side, the front seven should be strong, led by Vince Biegel, Jack Cichy and Chris Orr at linebacker. The question marks are in the secondary, especially at safety. D’Cota Dixon and Leo Musso have been inconsistent when given playing time in the past will have to improve now that they’re gonna be the regular starters.

           

My Big Ten Pick: Michigan over Wisconsin in Indy. I think this is the year Harbaugh lifts Michigan back to the top of the conference. The only reason I have the Badgers making it to Indy is I listen to way too much ESPN Madison radio and the former Badgers on those shows have me convinced that this is going to be a great team, despite the brutal schedule.

My Final Four: Clemson, Michigan, Stanford, Alabama

Championship: Clemson over Stanford

                                                Week 1 Picks

Wisconsin (+11) over LSU- Badgers can keep it within 10 with the help of the Lambeau crowd.

Houston (+11.5) over Oklahoma-This is going to be a 1-score game.

Alabama (-11.5) over USC-I think USC is overrated, Alabama should win this easily

Fresno State (+28) over Nebraska-there’s no way Nebraska is 28 points better than an FBS team in week 1.

Bones Guarantee of the Week (The pick I like that’s definitely gonna be wrong)

Louisiana-Lafayette (+20) over Boise State- I like this because the Ragin Cajuns are at home and the game kicks at 11 am. Kinda reminds me of last year’s Stanford-Northwestern week 1 game, making a team from the west play early. I always think ULL is a solid team,  (Probably because they used to play well in the New Orleans Bowl like every year)even though they went 4-8 last year. But…since it’s a Bones Guarantee Boise will end up covering easily.

2016 College Football Preview-Part 1

                 

            The best time of the year is finally here as college football season kicks off for real this week. There’s several ways to enjoy college football season. There’s a million games on tv every Saturday. You can tailgate or go to games. It’s also a time where it’s acceptable to spend the entire day at a bar. Lastly, it’s one of the greatest sports for degenerate gamblers. Throw some money down and you’ve got a full day of entertainment. To get ready for this season, I wrote up a preview of every conference (some more in-depth than others). Enjoy, and happy Football Eve.

                                      Sun Belt

I’ll be honest-unless a Sun Belt team is playing against Wisconsin (Georgia State this year), I usually won’t watch any Sun Belt football until the kickoff of the New Orleans Bowl (for some strange reason, usually one of the better bowl games). This year, it looks like the Sun Belt took a page out of MACtion’s playbook and is gonna have a few Wednesday games on ESPN this year so I might actually catch some regular season Sun Belt.

The Pick: I’ll go with Appalachian State. Finished 11-2 last year, solid program that owns a win over Michigan like 10 years ago.

Also keep an eye on: Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. Georgia Southern runs a traditional option offense and scores a lot of points. I bet against them in bowl season last year and lost.

                                    MACtion

One of my favorite things every year is when November rolls around and MAC football is on ESPN on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Nothing better to get you through the week than a 51-45 shootout on a cold November Tuesday in Dekalb, Illinois in a 3-quarters empty stadium.

As a Midwest guy, I’ll always appreciate the MAC. There may not be a lot of defense played in this conference but you got to give these guys credit for willingly going to play in places like Akron, Toledo, and Muncie. And the ultimate goal is a trip to Detroit at the end of the year. Gotta love it.

The Pick: I see a bit of a changing of the guard this year. The NIU Huskies have typically been top dogs of the conference, but I see them taking a step back. They did not look good in the MAC championship and their bowl game (even though they were down to their 5^th string QB, no excuses). I like Western Michigan this year. Their coach, PJ Fleck has recruited pretty well for a MAC school. He wears a shirt and tie every game so he’s a guy that means business. They return a senior QB and have a solid ground game led by Jarvion Franklin. I’ll take them to hoist the prized MAC championship trophy in Detroit after beating Bowling Green, who is my pick to win the east division.

                                                Conference USA

            This is a weird conference. I feel like the majority of these teams either weren’t D-1 or didn’t have a football program before the year 2000. Not much history here, except for Southern Miss, which produced the greatest gunslinger of all time, Brett Favre. I also feel like I never see any of these teams on TV. Not sure which channel they hide these games on. This is definitely the conference that got hit the hardest by all the realignment. Used to be a pretty solid football/basketball conference, kinda sad to see what it’s left with.

My pick: I honestly don’t know much about this league anymore. What I do know: Western Kentucky can score with just about anybody (except for their week 2 matchup with Alabama, which probably won’t go well). They actually finished last year ranked in the Top 25, and as long as they find an adequate replacement for graduated QB Brandon Doughty, I think they’ll repeat as C-USA champs this year. They’ll beat Southern Miss in a rematch of last years title game.

                                                Mountain West

            Now we finally get to a league which has a couple of contenders for that “Group of 5” spot in the New Year’s bowls. If either Boise State or San Diego State can get past through their non-conference slates unscathed, they’ll be in prime position for one of those slots. I like San Diego State’s odds a little better. Their toughest non-conference game is at home against Cal, who is likely in rebuilding mode. Boise’s toughest game is at home, but it’s against a pretty good Washington State team that returns QB Luke Falk.

That being said, while Boise and SDSU are my picks to reach the title game, it won’t be a cakewalk through the conference. Air Force and the triple option always make for a tough game, and they’re coming off an appearance in the MWC championship game last season. Former Notre Dame coach and ESPN announcer Bob Davie has New Mexico looking to improve on their bowl appearance last year. The Utah State Aggies should be tough as well even though I think Chuckie Keeton finally graduated after 7 years at quarterback.

My pick: I’ll take San Diego State over Boise State. SDSU is actually ranked 25^th to start the year, they have a favorable schedule and have one of the best running backs in the country in Donnell Pumphrey.

                                    American Athletic Conference

          There’s one team everybody’s got their eye on in this league this year-Houston. QB Greg Ward Jr. returns to the team that beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl last year and is the odds-on favorite for the Group of Five spot in the New Years bowls. The question is-can Houston crash the playoff if they run the table? They have the schedule which may give them a chance. It starts week 1 against #3 Oklahoma. They also play Louisville out of conference in November. In addition to winning those games, they’ll need the rest of the conference to look strong. Memphis and Navy had good seasons last year, but are breaking in new quarterbacks. I think Navy will have the lesser drop-off of the two, but replacing Keenan Reynolds won’t be easy.

Temple made some noise last year, beating Penn State and playing Notre Dame down to the wire. They’re a solid defensive team. They won’t play Houston this year, unless they meet in the conference title game. I actually like South Florida to win the East division. The Bulls have a strong running game (QB Quinton Flowers actually ran for over 1000 yards last year). They host Florida State Sept. 24-I don’t think they’ll beat the Seminoles but it’ll be closer than people expect.  I also can’t talk about the AAC without mentioning UConn, who has the most insane coach in college football. Bob Diaco literally thinks they’ll win a national championship. The best thing he’s done is create a rivalry game, trophy and everything (without the acknowledgement of the other school). UConn and UCF have almost no history against each other, but Diaco went ahead, had a trophy made and decided this game will now be known as the Civil ConFLiCT. Can’t make this shit up. I think UCF could care less.

The pick: Houston over USF in the title game. I don’t see Houston running the table. I think their playoff hopes will die week 1 against Oklahoma, but it will be a close game. I do, however like them to earn the spot in a New Years bowl (Likely the Cotton Bowl). 

Part 2 featuring the Power 5 Conferences will drop either tomorrow or Friday.