Now we're on to the Power 5.
Big 12
Gonna start this off with the Big 12, where defense is optional so you always bet the over. The Big 12 had a down year last year and was clearly the worst of the Power 5 leagues. It's likely to stay that way again this year, but that doesn't mean it won't be entertaining. The league will have a conference championship game for the first time since 2010. No divisions- just the top 2 teams in the conference will meet at Jerry World in December. Last year Oklahoma ran the table in conference after a rough non-conference season and won the Sugar Bowl against an overmatched Auburn team. They'll be the favorite again this year, but will be without Bob Stoops for the first time since 1998. Lincoln Riley, the team's offensive coordinator for the last 2 seasons takes over as head coach. Baker Mayfield, who has been a Heisman finalist the last 2 years is back for his senior season at QB, but loses most of his weapons from last year including RBs Joe Mixon & Semaje Perine, and WR Dede Westbrook (another Heisman finalist). This is Oklahoma, so there are plenty of 4-star recruits next in line. The offense will be fine, especially since a strong O-line returns. The question will be the defense, which struggled early but improved as the season went on. Again, this is the Big 12 so you don't need a great defense to win the conference but if you plan on making the playoff they'll need to improve.
There'll be a lot of eyes on Texas this year under 1st year coach Tom Herman. The claim that Texas was "back" after beating what turned out to be a 4-8 Notre Dame team turned out to be fake news, and after a loss to Kansas the writing was on the wall for Charlie Strong. Herman is gonna be expected to turn this team around quickly. Texas fans will need to be patient, as this is still a young roster that won't have a ton of seniors that contribute. Shane Buechele will be the starter at QB. He showed flashes last year as a freshman but will need to be much more consistent if the Longhorns want to at least make a bowl game this season. It should help that he won't have to worry about a platoon at QB, as Jerrod Heard has switched to WR full-time this season. Over in Stillwater, Oklahoma State is going to have one of the best passing offenses in the country, led by QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington. If the Cowboys win enough games, don't be surprised if one of those two ends up as a Heisman finalist. I can probably say this about most of the conference-it's gonna come down to whether the defense can get enough stops for the Cowboys. If they can, they'll be in Jerry World on Dec.2 playing for the conference championship.
One team that'll be sneaky good this year is Kansas State. I hope I'm not reading too much into one game, but they looked impressive in their bowl win over Texas A&M. 100- year old coach Bill Snyder is still on the sidelines.Mobile QB Jesse Ertz is back to lead a team that won 9 games and was competitive in all but 1 game last year (Oklahoma).
West Virginia will be interesting this season. They actually had a good defense last year compared the rest of the Big 12. The only problem is most of that defense is gone this year. If the next men up can come close to last years defensive production, the Mountaineers will have a chance. Florida transfer Will Grier takes over at QB after a year and a half off due to a PED suspension. He was off to a good start at Florida before the suspension, we'll see if he can keep it up without the roids.
Some quick notes about the rest of the league:
TCU- Inconsistent QB Kenny (Trill) Hill is back. Defense will need to improve on what was a mediocre season last year. Didn't really have any impressive wins. Some people think TCU will bounce back this year, I don't see it.
Baylor- Will likely be in rebuild mode under first year Matt Rhule, who had a great run at Temple. The team lost a lot of recruits and transfers because of the Art Briles scandal. Expect Rhule to improve the defense. Team started 6-0 last year and finished the regular season 0-6, but did win their bowl game.
Texas Tech- This is the prototypical Big 12 team. Great offense, bad defense.Except they take bad defense to the next level. Kliff Kingsbury is gonna be on the hot seat if they can't at least hold teams under 40. (8 opponents scored over 40 points, including 3 over 60.)
Iowa State- They'll either go 3-9 or 6-6. That's what Iowa State football does, one way or another. They'll give some teams a scare, and WR Allen Lazard is one of the better players in the conference. Just don't expect too much from the Cyclones. I already make that mistake every March with their basketball team.
Kansas- People forget that Kansas won the Orange Bowl 10 years ago. They're gonna honor that team this year, and that's probably the most Kansas fans will have to look forward to until basketball season.
Games to Watch: West Virginia vs Virginia Tech (Sep.3), Oklahoma at Ohio State (Sep.9), Texas at USC (Sep.16), Oklahoma State at Pitt (Sep.16), Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (Sep.30- this will be the most fun over to bet all year), Kansas State at Texas (Oct.7), Oklahoma vs Texas (Oct.14), Oklahoma at Kansas State (Oct.21) Oklahoma State at Texas (Oct.21), Oklahoma State at West Virginia (Oct.28), Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Nov.4), Kansas State at Oklahoma State (Nov.18), West Virginia at Oklahoma (Nov.25)
Championship Game: December 2
My Pick: Oklahoma over Kansas State. Even under a new coach the Sooners are still the best team in this conference. Kansas State is going to be the surprise team this year, I think they'll edge out Oklahoma State for 2nd place. I think the Big 12 will get shutout of the playoff again this year. Oklahoma will lose at Ohio State and won't run the table within the conference. 2 losses isn't gonna get you in the playoff.
Pac-12
Now on to the Pac-12, which brings us the always entertaining #Pac12AfterDark games that keep your college football Saturday going well past midnight.The hype around Washington last year ended up being legit, as they won the conference and made it into the playoff. They hung around against Alabama for a while in the playoff game but it was clear they weren't on Bama's level yet. They're the favorites in the North division. Much of the offense returns with the exception of the fastest guy at the combine, John Ross. Junior Jake Browning will lead the offense at QB, and RB Myles Gaskin and WR Dante Pettis are back as well. The question for the Huskies will be if the defense can repeat its strong performance from last year. While most of the front seven returns, the secondary will have to replace Kevin King, Sidney Jones, and Budda Baker who were all high draft picks this year. The Huskies have a pretty favorable schedule with most of their key games at home. Washington's biggest competition in the North will likely come from Stanford. Christian McCaffrey is now in the NFL but Stanford had plenty of practice playing without him last year as he battled injuries and skipped the bowl game. Other than McCaffrey, most of their key contributors return especially on defense. If QB Keller Chryst is anywhere near as electric as his uncle Paul look out for the Cardinal this year.
Washington State was in contention for the division title last year up until the final week. Coach Mike Leach is gonna throw the ball, and Luke Falk is back at QB again this year to rack up numbers. Even the defense was solid last year compared to past Leach teams . The Cougars should be in the race for the North this year, and get USC and Stanford at home. Oregon had always been a team you would expect to compete for the conference title, but they finished dead last in the North division and 4-8 overall. Mark Helfrich was fired, and Willie Taggart steps in as head coach. Taggart was able to lure defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt from Colorado to try to fix a defense that was awful last year. Cal also has a new head coach, former Wisconsin DC Justin Wilcox. He'll need to improve a defense that also couldn't stop anybody. Don't expect much in Wilcox's first year as the schedule won't do them any favors- several tough road games. Meanwhile in Corvallis Beavers fans can look forward to another 4-8 season this year. Gary Andersen probably has another year or two before his seat is officially hot, but it'll get warmer if the record doesn't improve soon. Mike Riley made bowl games regularly at Oregon State so it can be done.
Over in the South division USC is the heavy favorite. They finally lived up to expectations last year after plugging in Sam Darnold at QB. The Trojans ran the table after a 1-3 start and won the Rose Bowl. This year they're expected to be a playoff team. The schedule is favorable this year as they avoid Washington until a potential Pac-12 title matchup. While I think USC will be very good- Darnold is legit- I feel like a lot of the hype is because of last year's Rose Bowl performance. I don't think they're playoff- ready quite yet. They have to replace their two top wide receivers from last year (JuJu's gone) and playmaking DB and return guy Adoree Jackson.
Colorado came out of nowhere to win the division last year. They should be solid again but I don't see them competing with USC this year. The defense was strong last year, but will have to replace several starters as well as adjust under a new coordinator. Most of the offensive playmakers return, and while last year's QB Sefo Liufau is gone, this year's starter Steven Montez saw plenty of snaps last year so he has game experience. Utah has been one of the most consistent teams in the conference since their move to the Pac-12 . They will face a tough schedule this year but their defense should still be good enough to get them to 9 wins.
UCLA will get some hype because of QB Josh Rosen, who's made news recently for whining about the schedules of college athletes. Well guess what Josh. I managed to play a full intramural flag football schedule while maintaining a 2.5 GPA in a rigorous legal studies program and drinking 3+ nights a week. It can be done. The Bruins look like a 6-6 football team this year, and I'm not buying the Rosen hype. He'll be drafted high but will be the next Jaguars bust at QB. At the bottom of the division will be Arizona and Arizona State: two similar teams with decent offenses but brutal defenses.
Games to Watch: Oregon State at Colorado State (Aug.26- first game of the season, why not), Texas A&M at UCLA (Sep.3), Nebraska at Oregon (Sep.9), Utah at BYU (Sep.9), Boise State at Washington State (Sep.9), Stanford at USC (Sep.9), Arizona State at Texas Tech (Sep.16- another fun over bet), Texas at USC (Sep.16), Stanford at San Diego State (Sep.16), Washington at Colorado (Sep.23), USC at Washington State (Sep.29), Colorado at Washington State (Oct.21) USC at Notre Dame (Oct.21), UCLA at Washington (Oct.28), Stanford at Washington State (Nov.4), Washington at Stanford (Nov.10), USC at Colorado (Nov.11), Washington State at Utah (Nov.11), UCLA at USC (Nov.18), Utah at Washington (Nov.18), Washington State at Washington (Nov.25), Notre Dame at Stanford (Nov.25)
Championship- Dec.1
My pick: Washington over USC. I like what the Huskies return despite their secondary losses. Their schedule might not be good enough to get them back to the playoff (although that's what people said last year). USC should win the south and the Huskies will get some revenge for last year's loss as well as a resume boosting win in the championship game.
ACC
A lot of people are trying to claim that the ACC is the best conference in college football. I'm not buying that just yet.I think it's partially because ESPN will be having to show more ACC games since they lost some of their Big Ten rights so they have to promote what they're airing. I see this league being somewhat similar to the Big Ten in that it's top-heavy. Some of the middle of the pack has improved, but there are some very bad teams at the bottom (same with the Big Ten). Clemson was last year's national champion with the exciting come-from-behind win over Alabama. The recent coaches poll has them ranked 5th to start this year- I think that's way too high. Dabo is a very good coach and recruiter, but this team lost a lot of pieces from last year. Obviously Deshaun Watson is going to be the toughest to replace, but they also lost top offensive weapons Mike Williams and Wayne Gallman as well as several key defensive players including LB Ben Boulware and CB Cordrea Tankersley. That's too much to replace to still have top-5 expectations this season. The cupboard isn't completely bare, however. WRs Deon Cain and Hunter Renfroe are key contributors who return. The question is who will get them the ball. The expected starter at QB is junior Kelly Bryant. Clemson's success will be dependent on how well Bryant can perform. The defense should still be solid, but a tough early schedule should cause some growing pains for the defending national champs.
Everybody's pick to win the league this year is Florida State. Sophomore QB Deondre Francois returns after a strong second half of the season last year. FSU is another program that always has top recruits so the loss of RB Dalvin Cook shouldn't hurt too much. Next in line at RB is junior Jacques Patrick. The defense should be improved after a rough start to the season where they let Lamar Jackson run all over them. Safety Derwin James will be one of the best players in college football if he can stay healthy. As far as the Nole's playoff hopes, we'll find out right away what they're made of as they open up with Alabama in what should be one of the best opening week games of all time.
Louisville got off to a hot start last year, which pretty much locked in QB Lamar Jackson for the Heisman. The Cardinals didn't look like the same team at the end of the year, losing 3 straight to Houston, Kentucky, and LSU. The most glaring weakness in those games was on the offensive line, where they could not protect Jackson at all (Houston sacked him 11 times in that game). The fact that this year's offensive line will have 3 new starters might actually be a good thing. Jackson should still be electric, and other than a trip to FSU the Cardinals have a favorable schedule so they should be a factor in the division.
While the Atlantic Division winner is almost guaranteed to be either Clemson, FSU or Louisville, NC State is a team to keep an eye on. While they only won 7 games last year they played FSU tight and had Clemson on the ropes. QB Ryan Finley returns as well as most of a strong front seven on defense. Rounding out the rest of the division: Wake Forest and Boston College are two similar teams coming off of 7-win seasons. They have good defense and terrible offenses, which hurts their ability to compete in this division. At least Wake won't have their radio announcer leaking their gameplan anymore. Syracuse struggled defensively and won't really be a factor but may have a few entertaining games here and there. They ended last year with a basketball score against Pitt, losing 76-61.
Over in the Coastal division, Virginia Tech was the winner last year, showing huge improvement under 1st year coach Justin Fuente after several mediocre seasons to end Frank Beamer's career. While the Hokies might not be at the level of the teams in the Atlantic division yet, Fuente will have them there shortly. The defense should be solid but there will be question marks on offense. Last year QB Jerod Evans was effective running and throwing the ball. He surprisingly entered the draft early and went undrafted. Expected to take over for Evans will be another dual-threat QB in Josh Jackson, who is only a redshirt freshman.
Miami football has expectations again. They took major steps towards relevancy last year, finishing 9-4 with 3 tight losses. A missed extra point cost them the game against FSU. Miami is another team with questions at QB, as Brad Kaaya is now in the NFL. As of fall camp a starter has not been named yet. One major reason that Miami is the likely division favorite despite the QB situation is that they should have one of the best front sevens in the country.
Pitt was one of the most entertaining teams in the country last year but has to replace a lot of pieces. QB Nathan Peterman and RB James Conner are gone, as well as offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Expected to start at QB will be USC transfer Max Browne. The biggest concern for coach Pat Narduzzi should be improving a defense that was awful last year, forcing the Panthers be in a shootout every game.The struggles are somewhat surprising considering Narduzzi has a strong defensive background. Expect a bit of a drop-off this year from Pitt with a tough non-conference schedule that includes Penn State and Oklahoma State.
North Carolina has been competitive in recent years, but this looks to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels. Mitch Trubisky is now a Chicago Bear and most of the top offensive contributors from last years team are gone as well. Expected to take over at QB is LSU transfer Brandon Harris......who's not good. I saw him play in person. Maybe a change of scenery will help, but I don't see it. I'm guessing this will be a 6 or 7 win team. Also in this division is Georgia Tech, the lone power 5 team who runs the triple option offense. They're always a tough out and the offense is fun to watch. They're a tough team to predict and every few years they seem to appear in the ACC championship game. I don't see it happening this year, especially now that last year's leading rusher Dedrick Mills was recently dismissed from the team. Rounding out the division are Duke and Virginia, whose fans should just be patient, basketball season is just a few months away.
Games to Watch: Alabama vs. Florida State (Sep.2), West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech (Sep.3), Tennesee vs. Georgia Tech (Sep.4), Pitt at Penn State (Sep.9), Auburn at Clemson (Sep.9), Oklahoma State at Pitt (Sep.16), Clemson at Louisville (Sep.16), Miami at Florida State (Sep.16), NC State at Florida State (Sep.23), Clemson at Virginia Tech (Sep.30), Louisville at NC State (Oct.5), Louisville at Florida State (Oct.21), Clemson at NC State (Nov.4), Virginia Tech at Miami (Nov.4), Florida State at Clemson (Nov.11), Notre Dame at Miami (Nov.11), Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (Nov.11) Florida State at Florida (Nov.25), Georgia at Georgia Tech (Nov.25), Louisville at Kentucky (Nov.25)
Championship Game: Dec 2
My Pick: Florida State over Miami. The divisions are very imbalanced but this was the conference championship game the ACC had in mind when they set up the divisions. 13 years in and it hasn't happened yet. I think this will be the year Miami finally breaks through thanks to a fairly weak division. They'll lose the championship to Florida State, who is the most talented team in the conference. As far as FSU's playoff hopes-they can still make it with a competitive loss to Bama in the opener, but they'll need to run the table in conference, which won't be easy.
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