We're just a few days away from the best time of year: Football season. Once August hits and the first preseason games start showing on tv, you know we're close.But preseason NFL is just a tease. You don't really feel like football season has started until you see College Gameday on your tv and make your way to that first Saturday tailgate (Friday night for Wisconsin this year). While I still appreciate the NFL, college football is far more entertaining on a week-to-week basis. A regular season where every game matters. Games on all day from 11 AM to 1 AM. A few actual college football games have already been played, and we've got a full slate coming up this week starting Thursday. The Porch Report is back to get you ready for the best regular season in sports. I took a look at all the conferences in FBS and wrote a 3 part preview to get the season started. Part 1 starts off with the conferences that true degenerates know and love, the group of 5. Let's go.
Sun Belt
Gonna start things off with a quick look at the Sun Belt aka the Fun Belt. You'll see some of these teams during the non-conference season as well as a few random weeknight conference games. The league adds Coastal Carolina this season, who has been successful at the FCS level. This is also the last year for Idaho and New Mexico State. Idaho is going to make the drop down to FCS next season. Probably makes the most sense financially and competitively, as they're not really a geographic fit in the Sun Belt and historically haven't been very competitive, with the exception of last year's bowl win. New Mexico State is going to stay in FBS as an independent, although I could see them making a similar drop down if things don't improve soon. They've historically been one of the worst teams in college football (Haven't played in a bowl game since 1960).
The teams you'll want to watch are the ones that finished near the top last year. Appalachian State and Arkansas State finished as Co-Champions last year, while Troy finished 2nd and had a 10-3 overall record. All three are returning their starting QBs. Another team that I always enjoy watching are the Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Lafayette who have the best team name in college football. If things don't work out for Coach O at LSU, he'd be perfect for ULL.
Games to watch: App State at Georgia (Sep. 2), Troy at Boise St. (Sep.2), Wake Forest at App State (Sep. 23 -2nd year in a row App State has gotten a power 5 team to travel to their place), Miami (FL) at Arkansas St (Sep. 9 -another power 5 team traveling to a Sun Belt Stadium), Idaho at Troy (Nov. 2) , Troy at Arkansas St. (Dec. 2)
My Pick: Appalachian State. They're returning several starters from a 10 win team last year, and don't have to play Troy or Arkansas State. With no conference championship game, they should comfortably win the league this year. Watch out for them as a long shot for the Group of 5 spot in the New Year's 6. It's not likely as the Sun Belt hurts their overall strength of schedule, but if they somehow beat the two power 5 teams on their schedule and run the table it's possible- if there's enough chaos in the other Group of 5 leagues.
Conference USA
This league is a strange collection of teams. It used to be a decent league but has been hurt by realignment. At least for now it looks like things have stabilized and there's still a few quality teams in CUSA. The team that's gonna grab the most headlines is Florida Atlantic, now that Lane Kiffin is coach. If you watched the last season of Last Chance U (great show), you'll notice some connections to EMCC at FAU. Deandre Johnson and Tim Bonner are on the roster, and Clint Trickett joined the coaching staff. Don't expect much out of Kiffin in year 1- this is a program that's coming off of 3 straight 3-9 seasons. Also returning to coaching in CUSA is former Miami Hurricanes coach Butch Davis, who takes over at FIU.
Western Kentucky has been the best team in the conference the last few seasons, but have a new coach this year in Mike Sanford after Jeff Brohm left for Purdue. They're a high scoring team and return QB Mike White from last years Boca Raton Wet the Beak Ponzi Scheme Awareness Bowl Champions. Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss are the top competition for WKU, but are in the other division. WKU does have La Tech on the schedule but not Southern Miss. Other teams to watch are Middle Tennesee and Old Dominion, who won 10 games and their first bowl game last year.Middle Tennessee opens with 3 power 5 opponents, all of whom they could beat: Vanderbilt, Syracuse, and Minnesota. Another major story in the conference is the return of UAB football after 2 years without a team. The administration announced in 2014 they were going to eliminate football in a cost-cutting move, but the program was reinstated in July 2015. The team spent the last year practicing and is finally gonna get to hit teams in different jerseys again this year. It's gonna be a long rebuild but it's good to see the program that bought us Joe Webb and Roddy White back on the field.
Games to watch: Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee (Sep.2), Florida Atlantic at Wisconsin (Sep.9) North Carolina at Old Dominion (Sep.16), Louisiana Tech at WKU (Sep. 16), Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (Oct.21), WKU at Vanderbilt (Nov.4) ,Southern Miss at Tennessee (Nov.4 ), Middle Tennessee at WKU (Nov. 18)
Conference Championship Game: Dec.2
My Pick: Louisiana Tech over WKU. The Bulldogs are due for a championship after being close the last few years. I don't see this league having any real contenders for the New Years group of 5 spot but there are some teams with big opportunities in the non-conference schedule. It's definitely a stronger league than the Sun Belt but again, a lot would have to break right in order to see a C-USA team on New Years.
MACtion
Now on to my favorite mid-major league ,the MAC. This is the league that brings us football on Tuesday & Wednesday nights in November from cold, miserable, half empty Midwestern stadiums. Last year Western Michigan was the story, going 13-0 in the regular season and earning a bid to the Cotton Bowl losing to Wisconsin. PJ Fleck has rowed the boat on to Minnesota, but left plenty of talent in Kalamazoo so the Broncos are still strong contenders to win it again this year. Fleck recruited at a higher level than the rest of the MAC, so despite losing 5th overall pick Corey Davis and potentially elite QB Tom Flacco (transferred), the roster is still in good shape. Leading the way on offense will be RB Jarvion Franklin.
WMU's biggest competition will come from within it's own division- Toledo. The Rockets have been one of the top teams in the conference this decade, but haven't appeared in the championship game since 2004. Toledo's offense is fun to watch. I randomly ended up watching Toledo-BYU last year, it was one of the most entertaining games I saw all season. They lose RB Kareem Hunt, who was drafted by the Chiefs, but QB Logan Woodside is back. The MAC West could come down to the final game of the regular season, when WMU travels to Toledo. Another storyline in the West is Eastern Michigan, who after being one of the worst teams in college football for decades made a bowl appearance last year. It'll be interesting to see if the Eagles can keep it going, they return most of their playmakers on offense. Northern Illinois, who had been the perennial power in the west had a down year going 5-7 and will look to bounce back.
The East division looks to be a little more wide open. Ohio won the division last year, while Miami (Ohio) finished was the runner-up. Miami had one of the wildest seasons a team could have, starting 0-6 but finishing 6-0 to qualify for a bowl game. They also held their own in the bowl game, losing by just a point to an SEC team. They had a young roster last year and will only get better with experience. Ohio has been consistent under former Nebraska coach Frank Solich, who is now in his 13th year with the Bobcats. Bowling Green had been a regular in Detroit until a down year last year under 1st year coach Mike Jinks. The defense was awful even by MAC standards. They gave up 77 points in a game twice last year. I can understand Ohio State dropping 77 on a MAC team, but Memphis? That shouldn't happen.
Another interesting storyline in this division is Buffalo. Lance Leipold, the former UW-Whitewater coach is in his 3rd year and will start feeling some pressure if there isn't improvement after a brutal 2-10 season last year.
Games to Watch: Western Michigan at USC (Sep.2), Western Michigan at Michigan State (Sep.9), Northern Illinois at Nebraska (Sep.16), Bowling Green at Northwestern (Sep.16), Toledo at Miami (FL) (Sep.23), Miami (OH) at Notre Dame (Sep.30), Eastern Michigan at Toledo (Oct.7) , Miami (OH) at Ohio (Oct.31), Northern Illinois at Toledo (Nov. 2), Western Michigan at Toledo (Nov. 24)
Championship Game: December 1 (Detroit)
My Pick: Toledo over Miami (OH). I think this is the year Toledo will finally get over the hump. They'll take advantage of having WMU at home in the final game. Miami will ride the momentum from last year and win the East division.
Mountain West
The Mountain West isn't quite what it used to be, but should be an entertaining league this year, especially in the Mountain division. There's usually some late games on every week in case the Pac-12 game isn't competitive. Wyoming was the surprise division winner last year and will return QB Josh Allen, who's projected to be a very high draft pick next spring, possibly the top quarterback taken. The other top contenders in this division, Boise State and Colorado State return their starting QBs as well in Brett Rypien and Nick Stevens. All 3 of these teams disappointed in their bowl games last year but have will have early opportunities to make some noise against power 5 teams (I'll list those in the Games to Watch below). Odds are the Group of 5 NY6 representative will come from the Mountain West or the American, so these non-conference games will be crucial. Air Force and New Mexico add some depth to this division. Air Force might not get the attention that the other service academies do, but won 10 games last year and has been a consistent bowl team for the last decade. The triple option is always tough to defend. New Mexico, another option team has improved under former Notre Dame coach and ESPNer Bob Davie and won 9 games last year.
The West division looks to be San Diego State's to lose. They're the defending conference champs, won 11 games last year including an impressive bowl win over Houston. They lose RB Donnell Pumphrey who claims to be the NCAA's all time leading rusher even though that's fake news. Pumphrey was drafted by the Eagles, but most of the offense returns and the Aztecs should have the most reliable defense in the conference. While I don't really see anybody coming close to SDSU out of this division, Hawaii probably has the most potential out of the group. The offense might be close to getting back to what it used to be, a team that could score with anybody. They'll always have the most brutal travel schedule of any team, but when you get to go to school in Hawaii you can't complain. After a brutal start they improved to finish .500 and win a bowl game. The rest of the division (Nevada, San Jose St, UNLV, Fresno) all look to be rebuilding and probably won't be much of a factor.
Games to Watch: Colorado State vs. Colorado (Sep.1), Wyoming at Iowa (Sep.2), Boise State at Washington State (Sep.9) Oregon at Wyoming (Sep. 16), Stanford at San Diego State (Sep.16), Air Force at Navy (Oct.7- for those who love the triple option), Boise State at San Diego State (Oct. 14), Wyoming at Boise State (Oct.21), San Diego State at Hawaii (Oct.28) ,Colorado State at Wyoming (Nov.4), Boise State at Colorado State (Nov.11), Air Force at Boise State (Nov.18)
Conference Championship Game: December 2
My Pick: San Diego State over Boise State. The Aztecs should coast through the West, and the better defense should be enough to contain Boise in the championship game. If they can beat the two Power 5 teams on their schedule (Arizona State and Stanford) , they'll get strong consideration for the NY6 spot.
American Athletic Conference
We'll finish off part 1 with what should be the best conference in the Group of 5 this year, the American aka the Big East/Conference USA mashup. This league is trying to convince the rest of college football that there should be a "Power 6" but the league still has a long way to go. There's been recent success with teams like Houston and UCF winning major bowl games. This year the top candidate to be the group of 5 representative in a NY6 bowl should be South Florida. Charlie Strong takes over for Willie Taggart (now coaching Oregon) in which should be a much better situation for him than Texas, where he was always on the hot seat. He's familiar with the state of Florida and should recruit well. This year he gets returning conference player of the year Quinton Flowers (QB) to lead the offense. Flowers can throw it but also is a threat on the ground (over 1500 yards rushing last year). The offense should be in good shape with the majority of last year's top receivers returning. The only downside of this team is a defense that struggled late in the year. This team will have to win some shootouts, but with their offense (and schedule) they should be the favorites in the East division. The Bulls most likely competition in their division will come from Temple or UCF. Temple will be under 1st year coach Geoff Collins after Matt Rhule left for Baylor. The Owls were the surprise conference champs last year and should have a strong defense and running game led by RB Ryquell Armstead. After an 0-12 2015 season, UCF bounced back to make a bowl game in Scott Frost's first year. Frost has recruited well and if the talent develops early they could make some noise. The bottom of the division is looking to rebuild after some coaching changes. Former Ohio State interim coach Luke Fickell takes over and will need to improve offensively this year. Randy Edsall returns to UConn where he saw some success in his previous 12 year stint with the Huskies.
There should be an interesting race in the West division. Memphis returns most of their high-scoring offense from last year including QB Riley Ferguson ,RB Doroland Dorceus, and WR Anthony Miller. Tom Herman left Houston for Texas but in his short time with the Cougars he recruited well. They have plenty of talent coming back including 5-star DT Ed Oliver. Texas A&M transfer QB Kyle Allen will lead the offense.
Navy should be in the mix as well. They'll have to replace a lot on offense but the triple option has always been strong under coach Ken ...I cant pronounce his last name. They'll be hungry coming off their first loss to Army in 15 years. Tulsa and SMU will make some games interesting, but they won't be able to defend anybody.
Games to Watch: Tulsa at Oklahoma State (Aug.31), Temple at Notre Dame (Sep.2), Houston at Arizona (Sep.9), Memphis at UCF (Sep.9), Illinois at USF (Sep.15 -only Power 5 team on the Bulls schedule-absolute must-win), UCLA at Memphis (Sep.16) , Temple at USF (Sep.21), Houston at Temple (Sep.30), Navy at Memphis (Oct.14), Memphis at Houston (Oct.19), Navy at Temple (Nov.3), Houston at USF (Nov.4), Navy at Notre Dame (Nov. 18) Navy at Houston (Nov.24) , USF at UCF (Nov.24), Army vs. Navy (Dec.9- Always must-see TV).
Conference Championship Game: Dec.2
My Pick: USF over Houston. The Bulls have the best offensive player in the league and a favorable schedule. However, because of that schedule-they'll probably need to run the table to earn the NY6 spot, and they're more than capable of doing so. I'll give Houston the edge in the west because most of their big conference games are at home.
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