Next up is the SEC (the teams Alabama plays against). Last year the league definitely took a step down from their "best conference in football" perch. Lots of disappointed hillbillies outside of Tuscaloosa last year. I don't see the league being that much better. The most notable change this year in the league will be no more Verne on the CBS games. Alabama is still the obvious playoff pick, and you can bet Saban spent all offseason thinking about that last Clemson drive. It doesn't matter how many guys they lost to the NFL, Saban gets the best players every year. The one position that had been a question mark in the past for the Tide isn't this year. QB Jalen Hurts had a great 2016 season- and he was only a freshman. They also always have a beast at running back, and junior Bo Scarborough fits that description. Alabama usually seems to have about 5 first round picks on defense every year, and there's usually no drop-off because there's more future NFL players ready to step in. One of the top returning contributors from last year's defense is safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Tide should roll through the league again this year, although their playoff path will be a little tougher if they don't beat Florida State in their opener.
Auburn backed in to the Sugar Bowl last year as the SEC's 2nd best team. The offense struggled at times but a strong defense was enough to get them to 8 wins. The passing game should improve with Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. The run game will be solid, led by big back Kamryn Pettway, who was All-conference last year. That strong defense from last year will have to replace some pieces up front including Montravious Adams, who's now with the Packers.
The team I'll be paying the most attention to is LSU. Coach O finally has his dream job, and there couldn't be a better fit down in Cajun country than an actual Cajun. I hope he's there forever so we can get more commercials like this one he made while he was at Ole Miss:
Another team who has been disappointing lately has been Texas A&M. They're good at getting off to great starts, climbing to top-10 rankings and then completely falling apart. Because of that, Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat. Improving on an 8-win season could be tough given the teams quarterback situation. Whoever starts will be inexperienced, and with less than 2 weeks before the season Sumlin has yet to name a starter. They will have one of the better receivers in the country to work with in Christian Kirk. The defense was inconsistent last season, as their performance somewhat reflected their record: solid early, struggled late. If they're not able to win some tough road games Sumlin could find himself on his way out this year.
The rest of the West: Arkansas has been a consistent 7 win team under Bielema. Like his Wisconsin teams, they'll have a strong running game. I have a feeling Arkansas fans might be wanting more than 7 wins, and Bielema's seat could be getting as hot as Sumlin's if the record doesn't start to improve. Blowing a 24 point lead in the Belk Bowl doesn't look good either. Mississippi State managed to qualify for a bowl game at 5-7 last year because of academics. While I think they'll hover around .500 this year, they will have one of the more exciting players in the country in QB Nick Fitzgerald. Ole Miss might be competitive this year and find themselves in some shootouts, but after a self-imposed bowl ban they won't really be relevant.
Like most conferences, there's a gap between divisions in the SEC as well. The best teams are in the west, but somebody in the east gets a trip to Atlanta to get their ass kicked by Alabama. Florida has made that trip the last few years. They've got a good shot to make it 3 in a row. The Gators have had similar issues to LSU: great defense, decent skill position players but shitty quarterback play. QB play could improve with Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire, although there has been a competition and there's 3 possible guys who could see snaps this year. Also hurting the Gators will be 7 suspended players for their season opener against Michigan including top WR Antonio Calloway. The defense is younger but should be solid. While Florida does have some tough opponents on their schedule, most of the tough games are at home.
Georgia has been disappointing the last few years but looks ready to contend for the division this year. QB Jacob Eason now has a year of experience under his belt, and will have 2 solid backs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Tennessee was having a solid season last year until a 3 game losing streak killed their momentum. I think there's too many pieces to replace (Derek Barnett, Alvin Kamara, Josh Dobbs, Jalen Hurd-all gone) for them to compete for the division. They have as tough as a cross-over schedule as you can get, having to play Alabama and LSU from the West.
Kentucky could be a dark horse candidate if Florida and Georgia slip up. They return a lot of pieces from an offense that improved as the year went on. The defense will still be shaky, but the Wildcats have most of their toughest games at home. South Carolina was a young team last year that managed to make a bowl game after a brutal 2015 season. They'll still be young and probably average again this year. As a fan of the Friday movies, I've gotta give a shoutout to WR Deebo Samuel (solid player, great name.).Vanderbilt made their first bowl game last year, which is about as good as you can expect from them given their academic standards compared to the rest of the league. RB Ralph Webb is a player to watch for the Commodores. Missouri was bad last year, I don't see them getting much better this year. The SEC is not a safe space.
Games to Watch: Florida vs. Michigan (Sep.2), Alabama vs. Florida State (Sep.2), Texas A&M at UCLA (Sep.3), Tennessee vs Georgia Tech (Sep.4), Auburn at Clemson (Sep.9), Georgia at Notre Dame (Sep.9), Tennessee at Florida (Sep.16), Florida at Kentucky (Sep.23), Texas A&M vs Arkansas (Sep.23), Alabama at Texas A&M (Oct.7), LSU at Florida (Oct.7), Texas A&M at Florida (Oct.14), Auburn at LSU (Oct.14), Tennessee at Alabama (Oct.21), Georgia vs Florida (Oct.28), Auburn at Texas A&M (Nov.4), LSU at Alabama (Nov.4), Georgia at Auburn (Nov.11) Arkansas at LSU (Nov.11), LSU at Tennessee (Nov.18), Georgia at Georgia Tech (Nov.25), Louisville at Kentucky (Nov.25), Alabama at Auburn (Nov.25), LSU at Texas A&M (Nov.25), Florida State at Florida (Nov.25)
Championship Game: Dec 2
My Pick: Alabama over Georgia. Alabama is the easy pick in the west for as long as Saban is the coach. I'll go with Georgia in the east, I think they're good enough to overtake Florida this year. Whether they're good enough to make a competitive conference championship game, that's another story. Roll Tide.
Big Ten
And finally, on to the best conference, the Big Ten. It's not just because it's my favorite conference, it actually proved it on the field. 4 teams were in the playoff hunt at the end of the year. Those same 4 are in the top 10 again to start the year and all have playoff potential. It was pretty damn sweet to hear SEC homers like Paul Finebaum have to say that the Big Ten was the best conference last year. While the bowl results were disappointing, the only teams that didn't really show up were Ohio State and Iowa. Penn State and Michigan easily could have won NY6 games. The B1G had huge nonconference wins during the season which helped the reputation and rankings during the season. I can't wait for Big Ten football to start, and we even get a conference game to start the season on a Thursday night with Ohio State vs. Indiana. One new thing that Big Ten fans will want to do before the season starts is learn what channel FS1 is. The league's new tv deal means most of the big games will be on the FOX networks with Gus Johnson on the call instead of Fowler and Herbstreit. There'll still be some games on ESPN, just not as many as we're used to.
Ohio State got the playoff spot despite not winning the conference. A Penn State blocked kick return kept them out of Indy, but an 11-1 record and OT wins over Michigan and Wisconsin earned them the trip to the playoff. For some reason, they decided not to show up and Clemson kicked their ass. OSU is ranked #2 in the AP poll to start the year. They'll be a lot of people's playoff pick from the Big Ten. JT Barrett is back at QB and is this years "Joel Stave Memorial how the hell is he still in school" award winner. That's part of the reason they're ranked highly but they'll also have a strong running game led by Mike Weber. Another highly hyped freshman back who will get some carries is JK Dobbins, who every non-OSU fan will eventually grow to hate. The Buckeyes defense will be solid this year. The front seven will be strong but the secondary could be vulnerable after losing 3 starters who were drafted in the first round. The name brand will help their case when it comes to the playoff committee, and there's plenty of opportunity in the schedule to make a statement, even as early as Sep.9 when they host Oklahoma. They also host Penn State but will get Michigan on the road.
Penn State shocked everyone by winning the conference last year. They were pretty much an afterthought after starting 2-2 and getting blown out by Michigan. An upset of Ohio State got them rolling all the way until blowing a 14 point lead in the Rose Bowl. They won't sneak up on anybody this year, starting the year ranked #6 and returning most of their key starters from last year. The most important ones back are QB Trace McSorley, RB Saquon Barkley (Heisman watch) , and TE Mike Gesicki. They'll be able to put up points. The key to them getting back will to Indy will be winning road games, including a trip to Columbus and sneaky tough games at Iowa and Northwestern.
Jim Harbaugh has done a solid job getting Michigan out of the Brady Hoke mess with back-to-back 10 win seasons. Last year had to feel like a disappointment for Michigan fans. They were undefeated going into a shocking November loss at Iowa, and were inches away from a 4th down stop to beat Ohio State. A couple things go their way and they're in the playoff. This year could be a struggle for the Wolverines. While I don't see there being a huge dropoff in the record because Harbaugh is a great coach and has recruited well, this team lost a ton of talent from last season. Jake Butt, Darboh, Chesson, De'veon Smith, Taco Charlton, Jabrill Peppers, Jourdan Lewis- they're all gone, and that's just to name a few. The offense will be almost entirely new, but it does bring back the most important piece in QB Wilton Speight. The defense was hit hard as well, but will have last year's top recruit Rashan Gary to lead the front seven. Other than a tough opener against Florida, which doesn't matter as far as the division race goes (they're not gonna be a playoff team), the schedule does allow for some time to grow until visiting Penn State on Oct.21.
As for the rest of the East division: Michigan State went from a playoff team to downright awful last year. They weren't able to replace Connor Cook and tried 3 different QBs last year, none of them really worked out. Brian Lewerke was one of those three, and he's going to be the starter this year. Luckily he'll be able to hand the ball off to LJ Scott, who is one of the better backs in the conference. The defense struggled as well last year and is replacing several starters. The good news for the Spartans is that it can't possibly get any worse than last year. Or I guess it could. You could lose to Rutgers (their only Big Ten win last year). I personally wouldn't mind seeing the Spartans spend some more time in the basement.
Indiana had shown steady improvement under Kevin Wilson even though the record may not have reflected it. Playing in the East division is always going to limit the Hoosiers ceiling, but they have played games against Michigan and Ohio State right down to the wire. For some reason, the administration and Wilson had a falling out and last year's defensive coordinator Tom Allen takes over. Wilson stayed in the Big Ten and is now the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. Allen actually had Indiana playing solid defense last year. It should be solid again this year, led by LB Tegray Scales, who has been seen on a few preseason All-America teams. On offense QB Richard Lagow is back. He's ok but is mostly memorable because he's a quarterback who wears #21.
Maryland and Rutgers- get the hell out of my conference.
Now on to the West division. I'll wrap up this preview with the favorite, my Wisconsin Badgers but here's a look at the rest of the division first. Wisconsin is the overwhelming favorite but the team that probably has the best chance to give Wisconsin a scare will be Northwestern. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, the Badgers don't have to travel to the high school stadium in Evanston this year where they typically struggle. Northwestern does avoid Ohio State and Michigan and gets Penn State at home. QB Clayton Thorson is nothing special but he's experienced. RB Justin Jackson has rushed for 1000 yards in each of his first 3 seasons. The defense will be experienced as well so Northwestern could make some noise, if they do just make sure not to listen to Mike and Mike or you won't hear the end of it from Greeny. Actually make that just about any ESPN show since 90% of the network went to Northwestern.
Nebraska started out 7-0 before coming back down to earth last year.Since joining the Big Ten they've been ok but not the program the league thought it was getting. This looks like it could be a rough year for the Huskers. They lose key players from just about every position from last year. Tommy Armstrong is finally done, and the new QB this year will be Tulane transfer Tanner Lee. They do have one of the better kick returners in De'Mornay Pierson-El but he hasn't contributed much as a receiver on offense. Former UConn coach/crazy guy Bob Diaco takes over as defensive coordinator. The schedule won't do the Huskers any favors, as they draw Ohio State and Penn State from the east division.
Iowa looks like they'll have another typical Iowa team this season. Every 4 or 5 years Kirk Ferentz makes a run to contend for a Big Ten Championship to save his job. They're only 2 years removed from playing in the Rose Bowl, so that means this year they're due for a 7 or 8 win season. Iowa typically has strong defense but struggles offensively. Expect more of that this year, with quarterback being a question mark with no more CJ Beathard. The offense will rely on RB Akrum Wadley to carry the load. The defense will return a solid front seven, led by LB Josey Jewell but will have some question marks in the secondary with the loss of Desmond King. Like Nebraska, Iowa also draws Penn State and Ohio State from the east but they get both at home. They also have a tricky opening game against Wyoming.
PJ Fleck has brought the Row the Boat show to Minnesota. It worked in the MAC, but will it work in the Big Ten? Time will tell. When you've lost your biggest rivalry game 13 straight years you've gotta try something different. Minnesota had a solid season for their standards last year including a surprising Holiday Bowl win over Washington State. Off-the field issues got Tracy Claeys fired, and now Fleck steps in. Mitch Leidner is gone, and Fleck hasn't made a decision who will replace him yet so he has named two starting QBs for their opener. They do have two solid backs in Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks. That's about all I've got on Minnesota, however I'm sure Fleck will bring them much more attention than usual.
Purdue made a great hire by bringing in huge football guy Jeff Brohm. He had success at Western Kentucky and as an XFL quarterback. One thing Purdue fans can look forward to is the quickest concussion protocol in all of football:
Illinois has some interesting names for NFL fans on team, with the coaching staff led by Lovie Smith and Hardy Nickerson and Jeff George Jr. at QB. But that's about all that's interesting about the Illini. The offense could get a boost if WR Mike Dudek can return to his 2014 form after missing the last two seasons with injury. Lovie's still got a lot of work to do before Illinois is a threat in the conference. They could at least celebrate the 10- year anniversary of their Rose Bowl season with Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall.
Wrapping up the west Wisconsin is the clear favorite and anything less than a trip to Indy will be a disappointment. Well I have high hopes for this team, the media also thinks highly of them ranking them #9 to start the year. Part of the reason they're ranked highly is because they have a very favorable schedule. The Badgers avoid Ohio State and Penn State and get Michigan, Northwestern and Iowa at home. The non-conference schedule lightens up compared to recent years but a trip to BYU won't be easy. They might be favored in every game. I've heard some comparisons to 2015 Iowa but I feel like this team is a lot different. Iowa came out of nowhere that season but Wisconsin had success last year, winning a NY6 bowl game. The main reason that I expect this team to be successful is that they have so many returning starters from last year. QB Alex Hornibrook is back for his sophomore year. He showed flashes last year but was inconsistent. The coaching staff has liked what they've seen from Hornibrook in camp. This team is still capable of having a very good season if he can be a game manager, but for the Badgers to make the next step into playoff contention he'll need to make some plays downfield. He'll also need to stay healthy, as there are no experienced options behind him on the depth chart. Helping Hornibrook in the passing game will be one of the best tight ends in college football, Troy Fumagalli, and last year's top receiver Jazz Peavy. The Badgers will need a few other options to step up in the passing game. Some guys to watch will be sophomore WRs Quintez Cephus and AJ Taylor, as well as backup TE Kyle Penniston.
The Badgers were solid in the running game last season, but this year they should be back to their dominant form of years past. Leading the way will be Bradrick Shaw and Pitt transfer Chris James. Shaw showed exciting potential when he got touches last year and should be even better this year with more carries. James is also expected to be a key target catching the ball out of the backfield. There also is promising depth at running back. Before camp started it was assumed that freshman Jonathan Taylor would redshirt, but he has looked too good in practice for the coaches to keep him off the field this year. Taiwan Deal has struggled with injuries so far, but he is a bigger back that could see carries in short-yardage situations. Also in the mix for touches will be another Pitt transfer in Rachid Ibrahim. Also helping the run game will be a strong offensive line, a position that had seen inconsistency from some of the Gary Andersen recruits but all indications are that the line should be fully back to playing traditional Wisconsin football this season.
The defense has been the strongest part of the team the last few years, and that should continue despite having their 3rd coordinator in 3 years. If there's anyone who's a perfect fit for that job, it's Jim Leonhard. The linebackers will be the strength of the defense, even with the loss of Jack Cichy. If there was one position where the Badgers could handle a loss it's at linebacker. There are several key players back, including TJ Edwards, Ryan Connelly, Chris Orr (back from injury), and Leon Jacobs. There's depth after those 4 as well. Up front the D-line will be solid with Connor Sheehy and Chikwe Obasih on the edges and Olive Sagapolu up the middle. Sagapuou battled injuries last season but if he can stay healthy he's a difference maker. The secondary lost a couple of key pieces in Sojourn Shelton and Leo Musso, but their replacements have plenty of game experience. Natrell Jamerson is expected to take over Musso's safety spot. Derrick Tindal and Hawaii transfer Nick Nelson are two solid corners, and safety D'Cota Dixon always seemed to come up with huge interceptions last year. Also helping the Badgers will be more consistency in the kicking game with Rafael Gaglianone returning from injury. I'm excited for the season to start, and this team is capable of doing some big things this year. Let's go.
Games to Watch: Ohio State at Indiana (Aug.31), Wyoming at Iowa (Sep.2), Florida vs. Michigan (Sep.2), Pitt at Penn State (Sep.9), Nebraska at Oregon (Sep.9), Oklahoma at Ohio State (Sep.9), Wisconsin at BYU (Sep.16), Penn State at Iowa (Sep.23), Notre Dame at Michigan State (Sep.23), Northwestern at Wisconsin (Sep.30), Penn State at Northwestern (Oct.7), Michigan State at Michigan (Oct.7), Wisconsin at Nebraska (Oct.7), Ohio State at Nebraska (Oct.14), Michigan at Penn State (Oct.21), Penn State at Ohio State (Oct.28), Ohio State at Iowa (Nov.4), Northwestern at Nebraska (Nov.4), Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov.11), Michigan at Wisconsin (Nov.18), Iowa at Nebraska (Nov.24), Wisconsin at Minnesota (Nov.25), Ohio State at Michigan (Nov.25)
Championship Game: Dec 2
My Pick: Wisconsin over Ohio State. This is a dumb homer pick and with all my years of experience I should know better than to think Wisconsin is actually going to make the playoff. It just seems too perfect this year with the schedule and returning starters. They shouldn't have much of a problem with the west division but will be hungry to win in Indy after blowing a 21 point lead in last year's championship game. As far as who they'll beat, I'll say Ohio State wins the East. I could easily see both them and Penn State tied with one loss, but I'll say Ohio State beats Penn State in Columbus and gets the tiebreaker.
My Final Four: Alabama, Washington, Florida State, Wisconsin
Week 1 Picks
- App State vs. Georgia -Over 45.5
-Wyoming (+11.5) over Iowa
-West Virginia (+4) over Virginia Tech
-Alabama (-7) over Florida State
No comments:
Post a Comment