2nd Annual Porch Report College Football Preview Part 3

                                            SEC
Next up is the SEC (the teams Alabama plays against). Last year the league definitely took a step down from their "best conference in football" perch. Lots of disappointed hillbillies outside of Tuscaloosa last year. I don't see the league being that much better. The most notable change this year in the league will be no more Verne on the CBS games.  Alabama is still the obvious playoff pick, and you can bet Saban spent all offseason thinking about that last Clemson drive. It doesn't matter how many guys they lost to the NFL, Saban gets the best players every year. The one position that had been a question mark in the past for the Tide isn't this year. QB Jalen Hurts had a great 2016 season- and he was only a freshman. They also always have a beast at running back, and junior Bo Scarborough fits that description. Alabama usually seems to have about 5 first round picks on defense every year, and there's usually no drop-off because there's more future NFL players ready to step in. One of the top returning contributors from last year's defense is safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Tide should roll through the league again this year, although their playoff path will be a little tougher if they don't beat Florida State in their opener.
Auburn backed in to the Sugar Bowl last year as the SEC's 2nd best team. The offense struggled at times but a strong defense was enough to get them to 8 wins. The passing game should improve with Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. The run game will be solid, led by big back Kamryn Pettway, who was All-conference last year. That strong defense from last year will have to replace some pieces up front including Montravious Adams, who's now with the Packers.
The team I'll be paying the most attention to is LSU. Coach O finally has his dream job, and there couldn't be a better fit down in Cajun country than an actual Cajun. I hope he's there forever so we can get more commercials like this one he made while he was at Ole Miss:

While I can listen to Coach O say "Geaux Tigahs" all day, they'll need to get better on offense if he wants to keep his job. The main issue with LSU under Les Miles the last few games was the passing game, and I'm not sure how much better it will be with Danny Etling back. There is reason for hope with the offense, however. Orgeron bought in former Pitt and Wisconsin offensive coordinator Matt Canada to run the offense. Canada is a master of the 70 point game, and will find plenty of ways to use one of the best players in the country in RB Derrius Guice. One of the main reasons LSU's recent struggles under Miles was so frustrating was because the defense has been excellent, and should be again this year. They went toe-to-toe with Alabama last year, entering the 4th quarter tied 0-0. If Canada can work some magic with Etling, LSU is the team with the best chance to catch Alabama.
Another team who has been disappointing lately has been Texas A&M. They're good at getting off to great starts, climbing to top-10 rankings and then completely falling apart. Because of that, Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat. Improving on an 8-win season could be tough given the teams quarterback situation. Whoever starts will be inexperienced, and with less than 2 weeks before the season Sumlin has yet to name a starter. They will have one of the better receivers in the country to work with in Christian Kirk. The defense was inconsistent last season, as their performance somewhat reflected their record: solid early, struggled late. If they're not able to win some tough road games Sumlin could find himself on his way out this year.
The rest of the West: Arkansas has been a consistent 7 win team under Bielema. Like his Wisconsin teams, they'll have a strong running game. I have a feeling Arkansas fans might be wanting more than 7 wins, and Bielema's seat could be getting as hot as Sumlin's if the record doesn't start to improve. Blowing a 24 point lead in the Belk Bowl doesn't look good either. Mississippi State managed to qualify for a bowl game at 5-7 last year because of academics. While I think they'll hover around .500 this year, they will have one of the more exciting players in the country in QB Nick Fitzgerald. Ole Miss might be competitive this year and find themselves in some shootouts, but after a self-imposed bowl ban they won't really be relevant.
Like most conferences, there's a gap between divisions in the SEC as well. The best teams are in the west, but somebody in the east gets a trip to Atlanta to get their ass kicked by Alabama. Florida has made that trip the last few years. They've got a good shot to make it 3 in a row. The Gators have had similar issues to LSU: great defense, decent skill position players but shitty quarterback play. QB play could improve with Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire, although there has been a competition and there's 3 possible guys who could see snaps this year. Also hurting the Gators will be 7 suspended players for their season opener against Michigan including top WR Antonio Calloway. The defense is younger but should be solid. While Florida does have some tough opponents on their schedule, most of the tough games are at home.
Georgia has been disappointing the last few years but looks ready to contend for the division this year. QB Jacob Eason now has a year of experience under his belt, and will have 2 solid backs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Tennessee was having a solid season last year until a 3 game losing streak killed their momentum. I think there's too many pieces to replace (Derek Barnett, Alvin Kamara, Josh Dobbs, Jalen Hurd-all gone) for them to compete for the division. They have as tough as a cross-over schedule as you can get, having to play Alabama and LSU from the West.
Kentucky could be a dark horse candidate if Florida and Georgia slip up. They return a lot of pieces from an offense that improved as the year went on. The defense will still be shaky, but the Wildcats have most of their toughest games at home. South Carolina was a young team last year that managed to make a bowl game after a brutal 2015 season. They'll still be young and probably average again this year. As a fan of the Friday movies, I've gotta give a shoutout to WR Deebo Samuel (solid player, great name.).Vanderbilt made their first bowl game last year, which is about as good as you can expect from them given their academic standards compared to the rest of the league. RB Ralph Webb is a player to watch for the Commodores. Missouri was bad last year, I don't see them getting much better this year. The SEC is not a safe space.

Games to Watch: Florida vs. Michigan (Sep.2), Alabama vs. Florida State (Sep.2), Texas A&M at UCLA (Sep.3), Tennessee vs Georgia Tech (Sep.4), Auburn at Clemson (Sep.9), Georgia at Notre Dame (Sep.9), Tennessee at Florida (Sep.16), Florida at Kentucky (Sep.23), Texas A&M vs Arkansas (Sep.23), Alabama at Texas A&M (Oct.7), LSU at Florida (Oct.7), Texas A&M at Florida (Oct.14), Auburn at LSU (Oct.14), Tennessee at Alabama (Oct.21), Georgia vs Florida (Oct.28), Auburn at Texas A&M (Nov.4), LSU at Alabama (Nov.4), Georgia at Auburn (Nov.11) Arkansas at LSU (Nov.11), LSU at Tennessee (Nov.18), Georgia at Georgia Tech (Nov.25), Louisville at Kentucky (Nov.25), Alabama at Auburn (Nov.25), LSU at Texas A&M (Nov.25), Florida State at Florida (Nov.25)

Championship Game: Dec 2

My Pick: Alabama over Georgia. Alabama is the easy pick in the west for as long as Saban is the coach. I'll go with Georgia in the east, I think they're good enough to overtake Florida this year. Whether they're good enough to make a competitive conference championship game, that's another story. Roll Tide.

                                           Big Ten
And finally, on to the best conference, the Big Ten. It's not just because it's my favorite conference, it actually proved it on the field. 4 teams were in the playoff hunt at the end of the year. Those same 4 are in the top 10 again to start the year and all have playoff potential. It was pretty damn sweet to hear SEC homers like Paul Finebaum have to say that the Big Ten was the best conference last year. While the bowl results were disappointing, the only teams that didn't really show up were Ohio State and Iowa. Penn State and Michigan easily could have won NY6 games. The B1G had huge nonconference wins during the season which helped the reputation and rankings during the season. I can't wait for Big Ten football to start, and we even get a conference game to start the season on a Thursday night with Ohio State vs. Indiana. One new thing that Big Ten fans will want to do before the season starts is learn what channel FS1 is. The league's new tv deal means most of the big games will be on the FOX networks with Gus Johnson on the call instead of Fowler and Herbstreit. There'll still be some games on ESPN, just not as many as we're used to.
Ohio State got the playoff spot despite not winning the conference. A Penn State blocked kick return kept them out of Indy, but an 11-1 record and OT wins over Michigan and Wisconsin earned them the trip to the playoff. For some reason, they decided not to show up and Clemson kicked their ass. OSU is ranked #2 in the AP poll to start the year. They'll be a lot of people's playoff pick from the Big Ten. JT Barrett is back at QB and is this years "Joel Stave Memorial how the hell is he still in school" award winner. That's part of the reason they're ranked highly but they'll also have a strong running game led by Mike Weber. Another highly hyped freshman back who will get some carries is JK Dobbins, who every non-OSU fan will eventually grow to hate. The Buckeyes defense will be solid this year. The front seven will be strong but the secondary could be vulnerable after losing 3 starters who were drafted in the first round. The name brand will help their case when it comes to the playoff committee, and there's plenty of opportunity in the schedule to make a statement, even as early as Sep.9 when they host Oklahoma. They also host Penn State but will get Michigan on the road.
Penn State shocked everyone by winning the conference last year. They were pretty much an afterthought after starting 2-2 and getting blown out by Michigan. An upset of Ohio State got them rolling all the way until blowing a 14 point lead in the Rose Bowl. They won't sneak up on anybody this year, starting the year ranked #6 and returning most of their key starters from last year. The most important ones back are QB Trace McSorley, RB Saquon Barkley (Heisman watch) , and TE Mike Gesicki. They'll be able to put up points. The key to them getting back will to Indy will be winning road games, including a trip to Columbus and sneaky tough games at Iowa and Northwestern.
Jim Harbaugh has done a solid job getting Michigan out of the Brady Hoke mess with back-to-back 10 win seasons. Last year had to feel like a disappointment for Michigan fans. They were undefeated going into a shocking November loss at Iowa, and were inches away from a 4th down stop to beat Ohio State. A couple things go their way and they're in the playoff. This year could be a struggle for the Wolverines. While I don't see there being a huge dropoff in the record because Harbaugh is a great coach and has recruited well, this team lost a ton of talent from last season. Jake Butt, Darboh, Chesson, De'veon Smith, Taco Charlton, Jabrill Peppers, Jourdan Lewis- they're all gone, and that's just to name a few. The offense will be almost entirely new, but it does bring back the most important piece in QB Wilton Speight. The defense was hit hard as well, but will have last year's top recruit Rashan Gary to lead the front seven. Other than a tough opener against Florida, which doesn't matter as far as the division race goes (they're not gonna be a playoff team), the schedule does allow for some time to grow until visiting Penn State on Oct.21.
As for the rest of the East division: Michigan State went from a playoff team to downright awful last year. They weren't able to replace Connor Cook and tried 3 different QBs last year, none of them really worked out. Brian Lewerke was one of those three, and he's going to be the starter this year. Luckily he'll be able to hand the ball off to LJ Scott, who is one of the better backs in the conference. The defense struggled as well last year and is replacing several starters. The good news for the Spartans is that it can't possibly get any worse than last year. Or I guess it could. You could lose to Rutgers (their only Big Ten win last year). I personally wouldn't mind seeing the Spartans spend some more time in the basement.
Indiana had shown steady improvement under Kevin Wilson even though the record may not have reflected it. Playing in the East division is always going to limit the Hoosiers ceiling, but they have played games against Michigan and Ohio State right down to the wire. For some reason, the administration and Wilson had a falling out and last year's defensive coordinator Tom Allen takes over. Wilson stayed in the Big Ten and is now the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. Allen actually had Indiana playing solid defense last year. It should be solid again this year, led by LB Tegray Scales, who has been seen on a few preseason All-America teams. On offense QB Richard Lagow is back. He's ok but is mostly memorable because he's a quarterback who wears #21.
Maryland and Rutgers- get the hell out of my conference.
Now on to the West division. I'll wrap up this preview with the favorite, my Wisconsin Badgers but here's a look at the rest of the division first. Wisconsin is the overwhelming favorite but the team that probably has the best chance to give Wisconsin a scare will be Northwestern. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, the Badgers don't have to travel to the high school stadium in Evanston this year where they typically struggle. Northwestern does avoid Ohio State and Michigan and gets Penn State at home. QB Clayton Thorson is nothing special but he's experienced. RB Justin Jackson has rushed for 1000 yards in each of his first 3 seasons. The defense will be experienced as well so Northwestern could make some noise, if they do just make sure not to listen to Mike and Mike or you won't hear the end of it from Greeny. Actually make that just about any ESPN show since 90% of the network went to Northwestern.
Nebraska started out 7-0 before coming back down to earth last year.Since joining the Big Ten they've been ok but not the program the league thought it was getting. This looks like it could be a rough year for the Huskers. They lose key players from just about every position from last year. Tommy Armstrong is finally done, and the new QB this year will be Tulane transfer Tanner Lee. They do have one of the better kick returners in De'Mornay Pierson-El but he hasn't contributed much as a receiver on offense. Former UConn coach/crazy guy Bob Diaco takes over as defensive coordinator. The schedule won't do the Huskers any favors, as they draw Ohio State and Penn State from the east division.
Iowa looks like they'll have another typical Iowa team this season. Every 4 or 5 years Kirk Ferentz makes a run to contend for a Big Ten Championship to save his job. They're only 2 years removed from playing in the Rose Bowl, so that means this year they're due for a 7 or 8 win season. Iowa typically has strong defense but struggles offensively. Expect more of that this year, with quarterback being a question mark with no more CJ Beathard. The offense will rely on RB Akrum Wadley to carry the load. The defense will return a solid front seven, led by LB Josey Jewell but will have some question marks in the secondary with the loss of Desmond King. Like Nebraska, Iowa also draws Penn State and Ohio State from the east but they get both at home. They also have a tricky opening game against Wyoming.
PJ Fleck has brought the Row the Boat show to Minnesota. It worked in the MAC, but will it work in the Big Ten? Time will tell. When you've lost your biggest rivalry game 13 straight years you've gotta try something different. Minnesota had a solid season for their standards last year including a surprising Holiday Bowl win over Washington State. Off-the field issues got Tracy Claeys fired, and now Fleck steps in. Mitch Leidner is gone, and Fleck hasn't made a decision who will replace him yet so he has named two starting QBs for their opener. They do have two solid backs in Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks. That's about all I've got on Minnesota, however I'm sure Fleck will bring them much more attention than usual.

Purdue made a great hire by bringing in huge football guy Jeff Brohm. He had success at Western Kentucky and as an XFL quarterback. One thing Purdue fans can look forward to is the quickest concussion protocol in all of football:

If you have a pulse, you play football. On the field the Boilermakers will try to get back to what made them successful in the early 2000s under Joe Tiller, and that's throwing the football. QB David Blough threw for a lot of yards but also a lot of interceptions. He'll need to be more consistent if Purdue is going to show improvement in year 1 under Brohm. The schedule is probably too tough this year for them to have a realistic shot at a bowl game. They don't even have a sure win on their non-conference schedule which includes Louisville, Ohio and Missouri.
Illinois has some interesting names for NFL fans on team, with the coaching staff led by Lovie Smith and Hardy Nickerson and Jeff George Jr. at QB. But that's about all that's interesting about the Illini. The offense could get a boost if WR Mike Dudek can return to his 2014 form after missing the last two seasons with injury. Lovie's still got a lot of work to do before Illinois is a threat in the conference. They could at least celebrate the 10- year anniversary of their Rose Bowl season with Juice Williams and Rashard Mendenhall.
Wrapping up the west Wisconsin is the clear favorite and anything less than a trip to Indy will be a disappointment. Well I have high hopes for this team, the media also thinks highly of them ranking them #9 to start the year. Part of the reason they're ranked highly is because they have a very favorable schedule. The Badgers avoid Ohio State and Penn State and get Michigan, Northwestern and Iowa at home. The non-conference schedule lightens up compared to recent years but a trip to BYU won't be easy. They might be favored in every game. I've heard some comparisons to 2015 Iowa but I feel like this team is a lot different. Iowa came out of nowhere that season but Wisconsin had success last year, winning a NY6 bowl game. The main reason that I expect this team to be successful is that they have so many returning starters from last year. QB Alex Hornibrook is back for his sophomore year. He showed flashes last year but was inconsistent. The coaching staff has liked what they've seen from Hornibrook in camp. This team is still capable of having a very good season if he can be a game manager, but for the Badgers to make the next step into playoff contention he'll need to make some plays downfield. He'll also need to stay healthy, as there are no experienced options behind him on the depth chart. Helping Hornibrook in the passing game will be one of the best tight ends in college football, Troy Fumagalli, and last year's top receiver Jazz Peavy. The Badgers will need a few other options to step up in the passing game. Some guys to watch will be sophomore WRs Quintez Cephus and AJ Taylor, as well as backup TE Kyle Penniston.
The Badgers were solid in the running game last season, but this year they should be back to their dominant form  of years past. Leading the way will be Bradrick Shaw and Pitt transfer Chris James. Shaw showed exciting potential when he got touches last year and should be even better this year with more carries. James is also expected to be a key target catching the ball out of the backfield. There also is promising depth at running back. Before camp started it was assumed that freshman Jonathan Taylor would redshirt, but he has looked too good in practice for the coaches to keep him off the field this year. Taiwan Deal has struggled with injuries so far, but he is a bigger back that could see carries in short-yardage situations. Also in the mix for touches will be another Pitt transfer in Rachid Ibrahim. Also helping the run game will be a strong offensive line, a position that had seen inconsistency from some of the Gary Andersen recruits but all indications are that the line should be fully back to playing traditional Wisconsin football this season.
The defense has been the strongest part of the team the last few years, and that should continue despite having their 3rd coordinator in 3 years. If there's anyone who's a perfect fit for that job, it's Jim Leonhard. The linebackers will be the strength of the defense, even with the loss of Jack Cichy. If there was one position where the Badgers could handle a loss it's at linebacker. There are several key players back, including TJ Edwards, Ryan Connelly, Chris Orr (back from injury), and Leon Jacobs. There's depth after those 4 as well. Up front the D-line will be solid with Connor Sheehy and Chikwe Obasih on the edges and Olive Sagapolu up the middle. Sagapuou battled injuries last season but if he can stay healthy he's a difference maker. The secondary lost a couple of key pieces in Sojourn Shelton and Leo Musso, but their replacements have plenty of game experience. Natrell Jamerson is expected to take over Musso's safety spot. Derrick Tindal and Hawaii transfer Nick Nelson are two solid corners, and safety D'Cota Dixon always seemed to come up with huge interceptions last year. Also helping the Badgers will be more consistency in the kicking game with Rafael Gaglianone returning from injury. I'm excited for the season to start, and this team is capable of doing some big things this year. Let's go.

Games to Watch: Ohio State at Indiana (Aug.31), Wyoming at Iowa (Sep.2), Florida vs. Michigan (Sep.2), Pitt at Penn State (Sep.9), Nebraska at Oregon (Sep.9), Oklahoma at Ohio State (Sep.9), Wisconsin at BYU (Sep.16), Penn State at Iowa (Sep.23), Notre Dame at Michigan State (Sep.23), Northwestern at Wisconsin (Sep.30), Penn State at Northwestern (Oct.7), Michigan State at Michigan (Oct.7), Wisconsin at Nebraska (Oct.7), Ohio State at Nebraska (Oct.14), Michigan at Penn State (Oct.21), Penn State at Ohio State (Oct.28), Ohio State at Iowa (Nov.4), Northwestern at Nebraska (Nov.4), Michigan State at Ohio State (Nov.11), Michigan at Wisconsin (Nov.18), Iowa at Nebraska (Nov.24), Wisconsin at Minnesota (Nov.25), Ohio State at Michigan (Nov.25)

Championship Game: Dec 2

My Pick: Wisconsin over Ohio State. This is a dumb homer pick and with all my years of experience I should know better than to think Wisconsin is actually going to make the playoff. It just seems too perfect this year with the schedule and returning starters. They shouldn't have much of a problem with the west division but will be hungry to win in Indy after blowing a 21 point lead in last year's championship game. As far as who they'll beat, I'll say Ohio State wins the East. I could easily see both them and Penn State tied with one loss, but I'll say Ohio State beats Penn State in Columbus and gets the tiebreaker.

My Final Four: Alabama, Washington, Florida State, Wisconsin

                                    Week 1 Picks

- App State vs. Georgia -Over 45.5
-Wyoming (+11.5) over Iowa
-West Virginia (+4) over Virginia Tech
-Alabama (-7) over Florida State

2nd Annual Porch Report College Football Preview Part 2

Now we're on to the Power 5.

                                          Big 12
Gonna start this off with the Big 12, where defense is optional so you always bet the over. The Big 12 had a down year last year and was clearly the worst of the Power 5 leagues. It's likely to stay that way again this year, but that doesn't mean it won't be entertaining. The league will have a conference championship game for the first time since 2010. No divisions- just the top 2 teams in the conference will meet at Jerry World in December. Last year Oklahoma ran the table in conference after a rough non-conference season and won the Sugar Bowl against an overmatched Auburn team. They'll be the favorite again this year, but will be without Bob Stoops for the first time since 1998. Lincoln Riley, the team's offensive coordinator for the last 2 seasons takes over as head coach. Baker Mayfield, who has been a Heisman finalist the last 2 years is back for his senior season at QB, but loses most of his weapons from last year including RBs Joe Mixon & Semaje Perine, and WR Dede Westbrook (another Heisman finalist). This is Oklahoma, so there are plenty of 4-star recruits next in line. The offense will be fine, especially since a strong O-line returns. The question will be the defense, which struggled early but improved as the season went on. Again, this is the Big 12 so you don't need a great defense to win the conference but if you plan on making the playoff they'll need to improve.
There'll be a lot of eyes on Texas this year under 1st year coach Tom Herman. The claim that Texas was "back" after beating what turned out to be a 4-8 Notre Dame team turned out to be fake news, and after a loss to Kansas the writing was on the wall for Charlie Strong. Herman is gonna be expected to turn this team around quickly. Texas fans will need to be patient, as this is still a young roster that won't have a ton of seniors that contribute. Shane Buechele will be the starter at QB. He showed flashes last year as a freshman but will need to be much more consistent if the Longhorns want to at least make a bowl game this season. It should help that he won't have to worry about a platoon at QB, as Jerrod Heard has switched to WR full-time this season. Over in Stillwater, Oklahoma State is going to have one of the best passing offenses in the country, led by QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington. If the Cowboys win enough games, don't  be surprised if one of those two ends up as a Heisman finalist. I can probably say this about most of the conference-it's gonna come down to whether the defense can get enough stops for the Cowboys. If they can, they'll be in Jerry World on Dec.2 playing for the conference championship.
One team that'll be sneaky good this year is Kansas State. I hope I'm not reading too much into one game, but they looked impressive in their bowl win over Texas A&M. 100- year old coach Bill Snyder is still on the sidelines.Mobile QB Jesse Ertz is back to lead a team that won 9 games and was competitive in all but 1 game last year (Oklahoma).
West Virginia will be interesting this season. They actually had a good defense last year compared the rest of the Big 12. The only problem is most of that defense is gone this year. If the next men up can come close to last years defensive production, the Mountaineers will have a chance. Florida transfer Will Grier takes over at QB after a year and a half off due to a PED suspension. He was off to a good start at Florida before the suspension, we'll see if he can keep it up without the roids.
Some quick notes about the rest of the league:
TCU- Inconsistent QB Kenny (Trill) Hill is back. Defense will need to improve on what was a mediocre season last year. Didn't really have any impressive wins. Some people think TCU will bounce back this year, I don't see it.
Baylor- Will likely be in rebuild mode under first year Matt Rhule, who had a great run at Temple. The team lost a lot of recruits and transfers because of the Art Briles scandal. Expect Rhule to improve the defense. Team started 6-0 last year and finished the regular season 0-6, but did win their bowl game.
Texas Tech- This is the prototypical Big 12 team. Great offense, bad defense.Except they take bad defense to the next level. Kliff Kingsbury is gonna be on the hot seat if they can't at least hold teams under 40. (8 opponents scored over 40 points, including 3 over 60.)
Iowa State- They'll either go 3-9 or 6-6. That's what Iowa State football does, one way or another. They'll give some teams a scare, and WR Allen Lazard is one of the better players in the conference. Just don't expect too much from the Cyclones. I already make that mistake every March with their basketball team.
Kansas- People forget that Kansas won the Orange Bowl 10 years ago. They're gonna honor that team this year, and that's probably the most Kansas fans will have to look forward to until basketball season.

Games to Watch: West Virginia vs Virginia Tech (Sep.3), Oklahoma at Ohio State (Sep.9), Texas at USC (Sep.16), Oklahoma State at Pitt (Sep.16), Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (Sep.30- this will be the most fun over to bet all year), Kansas State at Texas (Oct.7), Oklahoma vs Texas (Oct.14), Oklahoma at Kansas State (Oct.21) Oklahoma State at Texas (Oct.21), Oklahoma State at West Virginia (Oct.28), Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Nov.4), Kansas State at Oklahoma State (Nov.18), West Virginia at Oklahoma (Nov.25)

Championship Game: December 2

My Pick: Oklahoma over Kansas State. Even under a new coach the Sooners are still the best team in this conference. Kansas State is going to be the surprise team this year, I think they'll edge out Oklahoma State for 2nd place. I think the Big 12 will get shutout of the playoff again this year. Oklahoma will lose at Ohio State and won't run the table within the conference. 2 losses isn't gonna get you in the playoff.

                                    Pac-12
Now on to the Pac-12, which brings us the always entertaining #Pac12AfterDark games that keep your college football Saturday going well past midnight.The hype around Washington last year ended up being legit, as they won the conference and made it into the playoff. They hung around against Alabama for a while in the playoff game but it was clear they weren't on Bama's level yet. They're the favorites in the North division. Much of the offense returns with the exception of the fastest guy at the combine, John Ross. Junior Jake Browning will lead the offense at QB, and RB Myles Gaskin and WR Dante Pettis are back as well. The question for the Huskies will be if the defense can repeat its strong performance from last year. While most of the front seven returns, the secondary will have to replace Kevin King, Sidney Jones, and Budda Baker who were all high draft picks this year. The Huskies have a pretty favorable schedule with most of their key games at home. Washington's biggest competition in the North will likely come from Stanford. Christian McCaffrey is now in the NFL but Stanford had plenty of practice playing without him last year as he battled injuries and skipped the bowl game. Other than McCaffrey, most of their key contributors return especially on defense. If QB Keller Chryst is anywhere near as electric as his uncle Paul look out for the Cardinal this year.
Washington State was in contention for the division title last year up until the final week. Coach Mike Leach is gonna throw the ball, and Luke Falk is back at QB again this year to rack up numbers. Even the defense was solid last year compared to past Leach teams . The Cougars should be in the race for the North this year, and get USC and Stanford at home. Oregon had always been a team you would expect to compete for the conference title, but they finished dead last in the North division and 4-8 overall. Mark Helfrich was fired, and Willie Taggart steps in as head coach. Taggart was able to lure defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt from Colorado to try to fix a defense that was awful last year. Cal also has a new head coach, former Wisconsin DC Justin Wilcox. He'll need to improve a defense that also couldn't stop anybody. Don't expect much in Wilcox's first year as the schedule won't do them any favors- several tough road games. Meanwhile in Corvallis Beavers fans can look forward to another 4-8 season this year. Gary Andersen probably has another year or two before his seat is officially hot, but it'll get warmer if the record doesn't improve soon. Mike Riley made bowl games regularly at Oregon State so it can be done.
Over in the South division USC is the heavy favorite. They finally lived up to expectations last year after plugging in Sam Darnold at QB. The Trojans ran the table after a 1-3 start and won the Rose Bowl. This year they're expected to be a playoff team. The schedule is favorable this year as they avoid Washington until a potential Pac-12 title matchup. While I think USC will be very good- Darnold is legit- I feel like a lot of the hype is because of last year's Rose Bowl performance. I don't think they're playoff- ready quite yet. They have to replace their two top wide receivers from last year (JuJu's gone) and playmaking DB and return guy Adoree Jackson.
Colorado came out of nowhere to win the division last year. They should be solid again but I don't see them competing with USC this year. The defense was strong last year, but will have to replace several starters as well as adjust under a new coordinator. Most of the offensive playmakers return, and while last year's QB Sefo Liufau is gone, this year's starter Steven Montez saw plenty of snaps last year so he has game experience. Utah has been one of the most consistent teams in the conference since their move to the Pac-12 . They will face a tough schedule this year but their defense should still be good enough to get them to 9 wins.
UCLA will get some hype because of QB Josh Rosen, who's made news recently for whining about the schedules of college athletes. Well guess what Josh. I managed to play a full intramural flag football schedule while maintaining a 2.5 GPA in a rigorous legal studies program and drinking 3+ nights a week. It can be done. The Bruins look like a 6-6 football team this year, and I'm not buying the Rosen hype. He'll be drafted high but will be the next Jaguars bust at QB. At the bottom of the division will be Arizona and Arizona State: two similar teams with decent offenses but brutal defenses.

Games to Watch: Oregon State at Colorado State (Aug.26- first game of the season, why not), Texas A&M at UCLA (Sep.3), Nebraska at Oregon (Sep.9), Utah at BYU (Sep.9), Boise State at Washington State (Sep.9), Stanford at USC (Sep.9), Arizona State at Texas Tech (Sep.16- another fun over bet), Texas at USC (Sep.16), Stanford at San Diego State (Sep.16), Washington at Colorado (Sep.23), USC at Washington State (Sep.29), Colorado at Washington State (Oct.21) USC at Notre Dame (Oct.21), UCLA at Washington (Oct.28), Stanford at Washington State (Nov.4), Washington at Stanford (Nov.10), USC at Colorado (Nov.11), Washington State at Utah (Nov.11), UCLA at USC (Nov.18), Utah at Washington (Nov.18), Washington State at Washington (Nov.25), Notre Dame at Stanford (Nov.25)

Championship- Dec.1

My pick: Washington over USC. I like what the Huskies return despite their secondary losses. Their schedule might not be good enough to get them back to the playoff (although that's what people said last year). USC should win the south and the Huskies will get some revenge for last year's loss as well as a resume boosting win in the championship game.

                                                                      ACC
A lot of people are trying to claim that the ACC is the best conference in college football. I'm not buying that just yet.I think it's partially because ESPN will be having to show more ACC games since they lost some of their Big Ten rights so they have to promote what they're airing. I see this league being somewhat similar to the Big Ten in that it's top-heavy. Some of the middle of the pack has improved, but there are some very bad teams at the bottom (same with the Big Ten). Clemson was last year's national champion with the exciting come-from-behind win over Alabama. The recent coaches poll has them ranked 5th to start this year- I think that's way too high. Dabo is a very good coach and recruiter, but this team lost a lot of pieces from last year. Obviously Deshaun Watson is going to be the toughest to replace, but they also lost top offensive weapons Mike Williams and Wayne Gallman as well as several key defensive players including LB Ben Boulware and CB Cordrea Tankersley. That's too much to replace to still have top-5 expectations this season. The cupboard isn't completely bare, however. WRs Deon Cain and Hunter Renfroe are key contributors who return. The question is who will get them the ball. The expected starter at QB is junior Kelly Bryant. Clemson's success will be dependent on how well Bryant can perform. The defense should still be solid, but a tough early schedule should cause some growing pains for the defending national champs.
Everybody's pick to win the league this year is Florida State. Sophomore QB Deondre Francois returns after a strong second half of the season last year. FSU is another program that always has top recruits so the loss of RB Dalvin Cook shouldn't hurt too much. Next in line at RB is junior Jacques Patrick. The defense should be improved after a rough start to the season where they let Lamar Jackson run all over them. Safety Derwin James will be one of the best players in college football if he can stay healthy. As far as the Nole's playoff hopes, we'll find out right away what they're made of as they open up with Alabama in what should be one of the best opening week games of all time.
Louisville got off to a hot start last year, which pretty much locked in QB Lamar Jackson for the Heisman. The Cardinals didn't look like the same team at the end of the year, losing 3 straight to Houston, Kentucky, and LSU. The most glaring weakness in those games was on the offensive line, where they could not protect Jackson at all (Houston sacked him 11 times in that game). The fact that this year's offensive line will have 3 new starters might actually be a good thing.  Jackson should still be electric, and other than a trip to FSU the Cardinals have a favorable schedule so they should be a factor in the division.
While the Atlantic Division winner is almost guaranteed to be either Clemson, FSU or Louisville, NC State is a team to keep an eye on. While they only won 7 games last year they played FSU tight and had Clemson on the ropes. QB Ryan Finley returns as well as most of a strong front seven on defense. Rounding out the rest of the division: Wake Forest and Boston College are two similar teams coming off of 7-win seasons. They have good defense and terrible offenses, which hurts their ability to compete in this division. At least Wake won't have their radio announcer leaking their gameplan anymore. Syracuse struggled defensively and won't really be a factor but may have a few entertaining games here and there. They ended last year with a basketball score against Pitt, losing 76-61.
Over in the Coastal division, Virginia Tech was the winner last year, showing huge improvement under 1st year coach Justin Fuente after several mediocre seasons to end Frank Beamer's career. While the Hokies might not be at the level of the teams in the Atlantic division yet, Fuente will have them there shortly. The defense should be solid but there will be question marks on offense. Last year QB Jerod Evans was effective running and throwing the ball. He surprisingly entered the draft early and went undrafted. Expected to take over for Evans will be another dual-threat QB in Josh Jackson, who is only a redshirt freshman.
Miami football has expectations again. They took major steps towards relevancy last year, finishing 9-4 with 3 tight losses. A missed extra point cost them the game against FSU. Miami is another team with questions at QB, as Brad Kaaya is now in the NFL. As of fall camp a starter has not been named yet. One major reason that Miami is the likely division favorite despite the QB situation is that they should have one of the best front sevens in the country.
Pitt was one of the most entertaining teams in the country last year but has to replace a lot of pieces. QB Nathan Peterman and RB James Conner are gone, as well as offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Expected to start at QB will be USC transfer Max Browne. The biggest concern for coach Pat Narduzzi should be improving a defense that was awful last year, forcing the Panthers be in a shootout every game.The struggles are somewhat surprising considering Narduzzi has a strong defensive background. Expect a bit of a drop-off this year from Pitt with a tough non-conference schedule that includes Penn State and Oklahoma State.
North Carolina has been competitive in recent years, but this looks to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels. Mitch Trubisky is now a Chicago Bear and most of the top offensive contributors from last years team are gone as well. Expected to take over at QB is LSU transfer Brandon Harris......who's not good. I saw him play in person.  Maybe a change of scenery will help, but I don't see it. I'm guessing this will be a 6 or 7 win team. Also in this division is Georgia Tech, the lone power 5 team who runs the triple option offense. They're always a tough out and the offense is fun to watch. They're a tough team to predict and every few years they seem to appear in the ACC championship game. I don't see it happening this year, especially now that last year's leading rusher Dedrick Mills was recently dismissed from the team. Rounding out the division are Duke and Virginia, whose fans should just be patient, basketball season is just a few months away.

Games to Watch: Alabama vs. Florida State (Sep.2), West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech (Sep.3), Tennesee vs. Georgia Tech (Sep.4), Pitt at Penn State (Sep.9), Auburn at Clemson (Sep.9), Oklahoma State at Pitt (Sep.16), Clemson at Louisville (Sep.16), Miami at Florida State (Sep.16), NC State at Florida State (Sep.23), Clemson at Virginia Tech (Sep.30), Louisville at NC State (Oct.5), Louisville at Florida State (Oct.21), Clemson at NC State (Nov.4), Virginia Tech at Miami (Nov.4), Florida State at Clemson (Nov.11), Notre Dame at Miami (Nov.11), Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (Nov.11) Florida State at Florida (Nov.25), Georgia at Georgia Tech (Nov.25), Louisville at Kentucky (Nov.25)

Championship Game: Dec 2

My Pick: Florida State over Miami. The divisions are very imbalanced but this was the conference championship game the ACC had in mind when they set up the divisions. 13 years in and it hasn't happened yet. I think this will be the year Miami finally breaks through thanks to a fairly weak division. They'll lose the championship to Florida State, who is the most talented team in the conference. As far as FSU's playoff hopes-they can still make it with a competitive loss to Bama in the opener, but they'll need to run the table in conference, which won't be easy.

2nd Annual Porch Report College Football Preview Part 1

We're just a few days away from the best time of year: Football season. Once August hits and the first preseason games start showing on tv, you know we're close.But preseason NFL is just a tease. You don't really feel like football season has started until you see College Gameday on your tv and make your way to that first Saturday tailgate (Friday night for Wisconsin this year). While I still appreciate the NFL, college football is far more entertaining on a week-to-week basis. A regular season where every game matters. Games on all day from 11 AM to 1 AM.  A few actual college football games have already been played, and we've got a full slate coming up this week starting Thursday. The Porch Report is back to get you  ready for the best regular season in sports. I took a look at all the conferences in FBS and wrote a 3 part preview to get the season started. Part 1 starts off with the conferences that true degenerates know and love, the group of 5. Let's go.


                                                    Sun Belt
 Gonna start things off with a quick look at the Sun Belt aka the Fun Belt. You'll see some of these teams during the non-conference season as well as a few random weeknight conference games. The league adds Coastal Carolina this season, who has been successful at the FCS level. This is also the last year for Idaho and New Mexico State. Idaho is going to make the drop down to FCS next season. Probably makes the most sense financially and competitively, as they're not really a geographic fit in the Sun Belt and historically haven't been very competitive, with the exception of last year's bowl win. New Mexico State is going to stay in FBS as an independent, although I could see them making a similar drop down if things don't improve soon. They've historically been one of the worst teams in college football (Haven't played in a bowl game since 1960).
The teams you'll want to watch are the ones that finished near the top last year. Appalachian State and Arkansas State finished as Co-Champions last year, while Troy finished 2nd and had a 10-3 overall record. All three are returning their starting QBs. Another team that I always enjoy watching are the Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Lafayette who have the best team name in college football. If things don't work out for Coach O at LSU, he'd be perfect for ULL.

Games to watch: App State at Georgia (Sep. 2), Troy at Boise St. (Sep.2), Wake Forest at App State (Sep. 23 -2nd year in a row App State has gotten a power 5 team to travel to their place), Miami (FL) at Arkansas St (Sep. 9 -another power 5 team traveling to a Sun Belt Stadium), Idaho at Troy (Nov. 2) , Troy at Arkansas St. (Dec. 2)

My Pick: Appalachian State. They're returning several starters from a 10 win team last year, and don't have to play Troy or Arkansas State. With no conference championship game, they should comfortably win the league this year. Watch out for them as a long shot for the Group of 5 spot in the New Year's 6. It's not likely as the Sun Belt hurts their overall strength of schedule, but if they somehow beat the two power 5 teams on their schedule and run the table it's possible- if there's enough chaos in the other Group of 5 leagues.


                           Conference USA
This league is a strange collection of teams. It used to be a decent league but has been hurt by realignment. At least for now it looks like things have stabilized and there's still a few quality teams in CUSA. The team that's gonna grab the most headlines is Florida Atlantic, now that Lane Kiffin is coach. If you watched the last season of Last Chance U (great show), you'll notice some connections to EMCC at FAU. Deandre Johnson and Tim Bonner are on the roster, and Clint Trickett joined the coaching staff. Don't expect much out of Kiffin in year 1- this is a program that's coming off of 3 straight 3-9 seasons. Also returning to coaching in CUSA is former Miami Hurricanes coach Butch Davis, who takes over at FIU.
Western Kentucky has been the best team in the conference the last few seasons, but have a new coach this year in Mike Sanford after Jeff Brohm left for Purdue. They're a high scoring team and return QB Mike White from last years Boca Raton Wet the Beak Ponzi Scheme Awareness Bowl Champions. Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss are the top competition for WKU, but are in the other division. WKU does have La Tech on the schedule but not Southern Miss. Other teams to watch are Middle Tennesee and Old Dominion, who won 10 games and their first bowl game last year.Middle Tennessee opens with 3 power 5 opponents, all of whom they could beat: Vanderbilt, Syracuse, and Minnesota. Another major story in the conference is the return of UAB football after 2 years without a team. The administration announced in 2014 they were going to eliminate football in a cost-cutting move, but the program was reinstated in July 2015. The team spent the last year practicing and is finally gonna get to hit teams in different jerseys again this year. It's gonna be a long rebuild but it's good to see the program that bought us Joe Webb and Roddy White back on the field.

Games to watch: Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee (Sep.2), Florida Atlantic at Wisconsin (Sep.9) North Carolina at Old Dominion (Sep.16), Louisiana Tech at WKU (Sep. 16), Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (Oct.21), WKU at Vanderbilt (Nov.4) ,Southern Miss at Tennessee (Nov.4 ),  Middle Tennessee at WKU (Nov. 18)

Conference Championship Game: Dec.2

My Pick: Louisiana Tech over WKU. The Bulldogs are due for a championship after being close the last few years. I don't see this league having any real contenders for the New Years group of 5 spot but there are some teams with big opportunities in the non-conference schedule. It's definitely a stronger league than the Sun Belt but again, a lot would have to break right in order to see a C-USA team on New Years.

                                     MACtion

   Now on to my favorite mid-major league ,the MAC. This is the league that brings us football on Tuesday & Wednesday nights in November from cold, miserable, half empty Midwestern stadiums. Last year Western Michigan was the story, going 13-0 in the regular season and earning a bid to the Cotton Bowl losing to Wisconsin. PJ Fleck has rowed the boat on to Minnesota, but left plenty of talent in Kalamazoo so the Broncos are still strong contenders to win it again this year. Fleck recruited at a higher level than the rest of the MAC, so despite losing 5th overall pick Corey Davis and potentially elite QB Tom Flacco (transferred), the roster is still in good shape. Leading the way on offense will be RB Jarvion Franklin.
WMU's biggest competition will come from within it's own division- Toledo. The Rockets have been one of the top teams in the conference this decade, but haven't appeared in the championship game since 2004. Toledo's offense is fun to watch. I randomly ended up watching Toledo-BYU last year, it was one of the most entertaining games I saw all season.  They lose RB Kareem Hunt, who was drafted by the Chiefs, but QB Logan Woodside is back. The MAC West could come down to the final game of the regular season, when WMU travels to Toledo. Another storyline in the West is Eastern Michigan, who after being one of the worst teams in college football for decades made a bowl appearance last year. It'll be interesting to see if the Eagles can keep it going, they return most of their playmakers on offense. Northern Illinois, who had been the perennial power in the west had a down year going 5-7 and will look to bounce back.
The East division looks to be a little more wide open. Ohio won the division last year, while Miami (Ohio) finished was the runner-up. Miami had one of the wildest seasons a team could have, starting 0-6 but finishing 6-0 to qualify for a bowl game. They also held their own in the bowl game, losing by just a point to an SEC team. They had a young roster last year and will only get better with experience. Ohio has been consistent under former Nebraska coach Frank Solich, who is now in his 13th year with the Bobcats. Bowling Green had been a regular in Detroit until a down year last year under 1st year coach Mike Jinks. The defense was awful even by MAC standards. They gave up 77 points in a game twice last year. I can understand Ohio State dropping 77 on a MAC team, but Memphis? That shouldn't happen.
Another interesting storyline in this division is Buffalo. Lance Leipold, the former UW-Whitewater coach is in his 3rd year and will start feeling some pressure if there isn't improvement after a brutal 2-10 season last year.

Games to Watch: Western Michigan at USC (Sep.2), Western Michigan at Michigan State (Sep.9), Northern Illinois at Nebraska (Sep.16), Bowling Green at Northwestern (Sep.16), Toledo at Miami (FL) (Sep.23), Miami (OH) at Notre Dame (Sep.30), Eastern Michigan at Toledo (Oct.7) , Miami (OH) at Ohio (Oct.31), Northern Illinois at Toledo (Nov. 2), Western Michigan at Toledo (Nov. 24)

Championship Game: December 1 (Detroit)

My Pick: Toledo over Miami (OH). I think this is the year Toledo will finally get over the hump. They'll take advantage of having WMU at home in the final game. Miami will ride the momentum from last year and win the East division.

                            Mountain West 
The Mountain West isn't quite what it used to be, but should be an entertaining league this year, especially in the Mountain division. There's usually some late games on every week in case the Pac-12 game isn't competitive. Wyoming was the surprise division winner last year and will return QB Josh Allen, who's projected to be a very high draft pick next spring, possibly the top quarterback taken. The other top contenders in this division, Boise State and Colorado State return their starting QBs as well in Brett Rypien and Nick Stevens. All 3 of these teams disappointed in their bowl games last year but have will have early opportunities to make some noise against power 5 teams (I'll list those in the Games to Watch below). Odds are the Group of 5 NY6 representative will come from the Mountain West or the American, so these non-conference games will be crucial. Air Force and New Mexico add some depth to this division. Air Force might not get the attention that the other service academies do, but won 10 games last year and has been a consistent bowl team for the last decade. The triple option is always tough to defend. New Mexico, another option team has improved under former Notre Dame coach and ESPNer Bob Davie and won 9 games last year.
The West division looks to be San Diego State's to lose. They're the defending conference champs, won 11 games last year including an impressive bowl win over Houston. They lose RB Donnell Pumphrey who claims to be the NCAA's all time leading rusher even though that's fake news. Pumphrey was drafted by the Eagles, but most of the offense returns and the Aztecs should have the most reliable defense in the conference. While I don't really see anybody coming close to SDSU out of this division, Hawaii probably has the most potential out of the group. The offense might be close to getting back to what it used to be, a team that could score with anybody. They'll always have the most brutal travel schedule of any team, but when you get to go to school in Hawaii you can't complain. After a brutal start they improved to finish .500 and win a bowl game. The rest of the division (Nevada, San Jose St, UNLV, Fresno) all look to be rebuilding and probably won't be much of a factor.

Games to Watch:  Colorado State vs. Colorado (Sep.1), Wyoming at Iowa (Sep.2), Boise State at Washington State (Sep.9) Oregon at Wyoming (Sep. 16), Stanford at San Diego State (Sep.16), Air Force at Navy (Oct.7- for those who love the triple option), Boise State at San Diego State (Oct. 14), Wyoming at Boise State (Oct.21), San Diego State at Hawaii (Oct.28) ,Colorado State at Wyoming (Nov.4), Boise State at Colorado State (Nov.11), Air Force at Boise State (Nov.18)

Conference Championship Game: December 2

My Pick: San Diego State over Boise State. The Aztecs should coast through the West, and the better defense should be enough to contain Boise in the championship game. If they can beat the two Power 5 teams on their schedule (Arizona State and Stanford) , they'll get strong consideration for the NY6 spot.

                  American Athletic Conference
We'll finish off part 1 with what should be the best conference in the Group of 5 this year, the American aka the Big East/Conference USA mashup. This league is trying to convince the rest of college football that there should be a "Power 6" but the league still has a long way to go. There's been recent success with teams like Houston and UCF winning major bowl games. This year the top candidate to be the group of 5 representative in a NY6 bowl should be South Florida. Charlie Strong takes over for Willie Taggart (now coaching Oregon) in which should be a much better situation for him than Texas, where he was always on the hot seat. He's familiar with the state of Florida and should recruit well. This year he gets returning conference player of the year Quinton Flowers (QB) to lead the offense. Flowers can throw it but also is a threat on the ground (over 1500 yards rushing last year). The offense should be in good shape with the majority of last year's top receivers returning. The only downside of this team is a defense that struggled late in the year. This team will have to win some shootouts, but with their offense (and schedule) they should be the favorites in the East division. The Bulls most likely competition in their division will come from Temple or UCF. Temple will be under 1st year coach Geoff Collins after Matt Rhule left for Baylor. The Owls were the surprise conference champs last year and should have a strong defense and running game led by RB Ryquell Armstead. After an 0-12 2015 season, UCF bounced back to make a bowl game in Scott Frost's first year. Frost has recruited well and if the talent develops early they could make some noise. The bottom of the division is looking to rebuild after some coaching changes. Former Ohio State interim coach Luke Fickell takes over and will need to improve offensively this year. Randy Edsall returns to UConn where he saw some success in his previous 12 year stint with the Huskies.
There should be an interesting race in the West division. Memphis returns most of their high-scoring offense from last year including QB Riley Ferguson ,RB Doroland Dorceus, and WR Anthony Miller. Tom Herman left Houston for Texas but in his short time with the Cougars he recruited well. They have plenty of talent coming back including 5-star DT Ed Oliver. Texas A&M transfer QB Kyle Allen will lead the offense.
Navy should be in the mix as well. They'll have to replace a lot on offense but the triple option has always been strong under coach Ken ...I cant pronounce his last name. They'll be hungry coming off their first loss to Army in 15 years. Tulsa and SMU will make some games interesting, but they won't be able to defend anybody.

Games to Watch: Tulsa at Oklahoma State (Aug.31), Temple at Notre Dame (Sep.2), Houston at Arizona (Sep.9), Memphis at UCF (Sep.9), Illinois at USF (Sep.15 -only Power 5 team on the Bulls schedule-absolute must-win), UCLA at Memphis (Sep.16) , Temple at USF (Sep.21), Houston at Temple (Sep.30), Navy at Memphis (Oct.14), Memphis at Houston (Oct.19), Navy at Temple (Nov.3), Houston at USF (Nov.4), Navy at Notre Dame (Nov. 18) Navy at Houston (Nov.24) , USF at UCF (Nov.24), Army vs. Navy (Dec.9- Always must-see TV).

Conference Championship Game: Dec.2

My Pick: USF over Houston. The Bulls have the best offensive player in the league and a favorable schedule. However, because of that schedule-they'll probably need to run the table to earn the NY6 spot, and they're more than capable of doing so. I'll give Houston the edge in the west because most of their big conference games are at home.

The Porch Report's 1st Annual March Madness Bracket

Folks, it's bracket season. It's all anybody is gonna talk about the next few weeks. Here at the Porch Report we decided to return after a brief hiatus to bring you another bracket to talk about because your bracket you have in your pool will be busted today. To be honest -I don't really know what the theme of this bracket is other than college basketball players. Some of them I hated, some I liked, some hit big shots in the tournament. Some seemed like they were in school forever. Others had great names. I guess I'll go with " Memorable College Basketball Players".

Who ya got?

It's Been A While

After a great win in East Lansing last weekend, the Badgers will be on the road again this week when they play #4 Michigan. Now, since a lot of our readers in the state of Wisconsin may have forgotten that Michigan football is actually in the Big Ten, I thought I'd give everyone a refresher as to who this mysterious team you'll see on the field on Saturday is. After all, it's been 6 years since the Badgers have played a football game against Michigan. Just to remind everyone of how long ago that was, here's a highlight film of that game.

 

I was at that game. I wasn't even old enough to drink yet. Rich Rod was the coach of Michigan. JJ Watt was still in college. That was forever ago. As Wisconsin fans, we missed out on the entire Brady Hoke era, and for Michigan fans, you somehow missed out on the entire Joel Stave era. All that being said, here's a few answers to some questions that you may have about this week's opponent:

Where is the University of Michigan? Believe it or not, it's in the state of Michigan! More specifically, it's located in Ann Arbor.

Wisconsin is the Badgers, what is Michigan called? They are the Wolverines.

What are Michigan's school colors? They're yellow and blue, although they call it maize and blue. 

You mentioned that Rich Rod was the coach the last time Michigan played Wisconsin, and that we missed out on the Brady Hoke era, who is their current coach?

That guy. 

For any other questions you may have in order to familiarize yourself with this week's opponent, follow this link for some additional reading:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_Wolverines_football 

Now on to this week's picks:

Wisconsin (+10.5) at Michigan- I couldn't believe that line when I saw it. That's fine. Let everybody disrespect the Badgers again. They'll be just fine proving everybody wrong. This game is gonna be a battle. Michigan hasn't had a test yet, they'll get one this week. Regardless of who actually wins, this one stays within 10 easily. 

Stanford (+3) at Washington ( Friday night) - Last weeks #Pac12AfterDark Friday special was a good one between USC and Utah, this one should be as well. The Huskies haven't really played anyone yet but are somehow in the top 10. They struggled last week against an average Arizona team. Like Michigan, this is their first real test of the season. I just think Stanford is the better team and should get the road win. 

LSU (-13) vs Missouri- Les Miles just got fired and now Ed Orgeron steps in.Gotta credit Barstool with the tip on this one. My favorite gambling theory I've learned about listening to Barstool podcasts is that you don't bet against a hardo interim coach in their first game. That would apply in this situation. I trust Big Cat's advice on this one: http://www.barstoolsports.com/chicago/interim-ed-already-making-an-impact-orgeron-fires-cam-cameron-and-walks-to-work-to-show-how-tough-he-is/comment-page-1/  

Louisville (-2) at Clemson- Clemson just doesn't seem to have everything clicking right now, while Louisville has been unstoppable. The home night game atmosphere will help Clemson, and I think this is gonna be one of the best games of the year. I'll go with Lamar Jackson over Deshaun Watson, Louisville wins it by a field goal. 

Bones Guarantee of the Week: Western Michigan (-3.5) at Central Michigan- Big MAC showdown here. The Broncos have been on a roll with 2 wins over Big Ten teams this year, while the Chippewas let me down last week against previously winless Virginia. I think the Broncos will keep it rolling and get a quality road win to kick off MACtion. 

Here We Go

It has arrived. Badger fans, we now enter the stretch we all circled on the schedule. Michigan State. Michigan. Ohio State. Iowa. Nebraska. It's time. The most brutal 5-game stretch I've ever seen on a Badger schedule. Amazingly, we were able to upset LSU and are sitting at 3-0 after surviving last week's near-debacle against Georgia State.

As much as I'd like to see the Badgers go 5-0 during this stretch, I know that's not realistic (if it does happen, start booking your playoff trips). They still can win the West division, however, and make a trip to Indy in December. Here's how. They need to win one of the three between Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State. Of those three, I think this week's game is probably the best chance, although Oct. 15 is gonna be an electric atmosphere at Camp Randall and crazy things can happen in night games against Ohio State in Mid-October (2010). Then they need to beat Iowa and Nebraska. Doing that and taking care of business in November against weaker teams (although at Northwestern is never easy) would put the Badgers at 10-2. Pretty damn good record with this schedule. They'll also need a little help with another conference loss from Iowa and Nebraska. Iowa does have to play Michigan and Nebraska has to travel to Ohio State, so there's a very good possibility the West can be won with 2 conference losses. So get ready, as tough as it's gonna be, it's finally good to have a season where there's games to actually be excited about week in and week out.

All that being said-can't afford to play anywhere near the level the Badgers played last week. Turnovers and settling for field goals in the red zone isn't gonna get it done. It looks like Alex Hornibrook is going to be taking over at QB for Bart Heisman, and I'm fine with that. From what I've seen he looks like the better QB and hopefully he can finally bring some consistency to that position. It's gonna be tough making his first career start in East Lansing (my least favorite place in the Big Ten), but I think it's the right call. I expect this to be a fairly low scoring game. It's an early kickoff on BTN for some reason (no respect for the Big Ten), and both teams have good defenses. The Badgers are going to need to get their running game going. Corey Clement is currently questionable-it would definitely help to have him on Saturday but at the same time you don't want to jeopardize the rest of his season if he's not ready to go yet. The last several Wisconsin-Michigan State games have been classics, hopefully this trip to East Lansing ends better than the last time. (I hate Kirk Cousins).

On to this weeks picks.

Last week's record: 3-1-1 (1-1 in the bonus picks). Got an incredible back door cover by Ole Miss, got a push with Oregon (Nebraska might be for real this year), and was dead wrong on Notre Dame. Their defense is terrible.

There's some decent games but nothing that really stands out. College Gameday is going to Tennessee for Florida-Tennessee which is the 2:30 CBS game, the ABC night game is Stanford at UCLA. Penn State at Michigan got the 2:30 ABC slot (should've been Wisconsin-MSU, will be a much closer game).

Utah (-3) vs USC (Friday Night)- I haven't been wrong going against USC yet this year so I'll keep riding that train again this week.

Oklahoma State at Baylor Over 74- this is gonna be your classic Big 12 shootout with very little defense played, over 74 should be no problem.

Central Michigan (-3.5) at Virginia-Virginia is awful this year. Central Michigan was able to stay with Oklahoma State on the road (technically shouldn't have won but they did) so they should be able to beat the Cavaliers, who already have losses to Richmond and UConn on their resume.

Pitt (+7) at North Carolina-Pitt's offense has been pretty good this year. They've been in shootouts the last 2 weeks, I think they'll get a road win at Carolina. The over in this one (67) is also worth a look.

Bones Guarantee of the Week- Florida State (-5) at South Florida- I know I mentioned in my preview that the Bulls could give FSU a tough time in this one-but after Lamar Jackson ran all over the Noles last week there's no way they let that happen two weeks in a row. They'll be prepared. USF will likely keep it competitive at halftime but the Noles should pull away.

Week 3: Remembering the XFL and Saturday Picks

A few days ago, I saw one of the greatest clips I've ever seen show up on twitter. It brought back memories of the glory days of football, long before concussion protocol was a phrase you heard every 15 minutes on Sundays. It was a clip from the greatest sports league to only last one season-the XFL. This clip made me wonder what could've been had the XFL made it. Combining football with the WWE, it doesn't get more electric than that. If only the XFL could've played good football. Most games weren't that competitive which had a big part in its downfall. But the idea was great. Here's the video below-unbelievable. Best part is the end. I'd be ready to run through a brick wall after that pregame interview. (FYI that's current Western Kentucky coach Jeff Brohm).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

My favorite part of the XFL was they didn't do a coin toss. They'd have each team pick their fastest guy and they'd have to race each other and battle for control of a football that was sitting at midfield. I can't think of better way to decide who gets possession first. You should have to earn it.  

I had to include this clip (video wouldn't post by itself so just follow the link)-just amazing. Felt like a segment on Monday Night Raw more than a football game. (Brief appearance by Tommy Maddox, who went on to take the Steelers to the playoffs). I'd love to see that 3-man booth of JR, The Rock and Jesse Ventura calling football games today. It'd beat the hell out of having to listen to Jim Nantz or Joe Buck on a Sunday afternoon. As the Rock said, there were no candy-ass jabronis in the XFL. 

I also can't talk about the XFL without mentioning "He Hate Me". XFL players could put whatever they wanted on the back of their jerseys, and this was the best one. Much better football name than his actual name, Rod Smart. He was also one of the XFL's better players, did end up spending time in the NFL after.

  

The XFL played during the NFL's offseason, which should've been perfect. Watching mediocre football players beat the shit out of each other would've been great entertainment during those months without the NFL or college football. But, it's gone forever. We'll have that one year of memories and thanks to the pussification of America we'll probably never see anything like it again. 

Thankfully, we're right in the midst of real football season. After a pretty weak slate of college games last week, we've got a great Saturday for week 3. It starts with Florida State traveling to Louisville at 11 AM. Louisville has blown out two bad teams in Charlotte and Syracuse and Lamar Jackson has looked like the Heisman frontrunner so far. He'll finally get a test this weekend. I don't think we'll be seeing him score 3 touchdowns in 5 minutes like he did last week vs Syracuse. Another sneaky interesting early game is 5-time defending FCS champ North Dakota State traveling to Iowa. Next on the slate at 2:30 is Alabama traveling to Ole Miss. The Rebels have beaten Saban the last two years and really need a win after falling apart in the second half against Florida State in the opener. Plenty of options with the night games: Michigan State vs. Notre Dame, USC vs Stanford, and the biggest one: Ohio State at Oklahoma. This is an absolute must win for the Sooners. Their playoff hopes are slim already after losing to Houston, but they'll be dead if they don't beat Ohio State. The Big 12 has looked pretty bad so far, so there might not be many conference games that will help their resume. This is a rare on-campus matchup between major programs so it should be fun to watch. I'm also assuming Gus Johnson will be on the call since the game's on FOX, that's an added bonus.

On to the picks. Last week I went 3-1, was dead wrong on Kentucky. App State won easily, got the under in the Miss State-South Carolina, and Washington State covered. Would've been nice if Kentucky wasn't the one game I actually bet on. 

Ole Miss (+10.5) vs. Alabama-I know it's not smart to bet against Alabama-but Ole Miss is the one team that has their number. It's at home-even if the Rebels don't win they'll keep it within a touchdown. 

Notre Dame (-8) vs Michigan State- I might be reading too much into one game, but the Spartans did not look good in their opener against Furman. I don't think they'll be able to keep up with Notre Dame's offense, assuming the Irish stick with Deshone Kizer the whole game. 

Oregon (+3) at Nebraska-  This is primarily because I won't believe Nebraska can win a big game until I see it. Even though the Huskers are off to a hot start I don't trust my money with Tommy Armstrong. The over is also a tempting bet at 74, should be plenty of points in this one.

Stanford (-8.5) vs USC- Stanford had a bye last week, so I think they'll win this one easily after getting extra time to break down the film of Alabama destroying USC. Should win by double digits at home. 

Bones Guarantee of the Week (Pick I like that's definitely gonna be wrong)

South Florida (-14) at Syracuse-I'm pretty high on South Florida this year, they're off to a good start. Syracuse isn't very good but they get this one at home-I still think the Bulls should be able to win by two touchdowns. 

Bonus Picks-These games are too big to leave off the board, wouldn't bet em but I'll pick em. 

Florida State (-1.5) at Louisville-Lamar Jackson finally runs into a competent defense. This should be a back and forth game but I think the Noles pull away late.

Ohio State (-1.5) at Oklahoma -I'm really not sure how this game is gonna go-Oklahoma is gonna play desperate, and Ohio State is looking to make a statement. For some reason I think there's actually see a lot of mistakes and turnovers in this game. I'll go with the Big Ten and Ohio State.