Big 12
Now on to the so-called “Power 5”.
The Big 12 is the only one without a conference championship game and is
looking to add a couple more teams so they don’t get shut out of the playoffs
all the time. There still are a few contenders in this league, even though
there is no defense played whatsoever. 90% of Big 12 games have overs that you
won’t see in any other league. Texas Tech vs Baylor, over 90? Take the over.
(Pretty much any game involving Texas Tech, the over is a safe bet. ). This does make for some entertaining games.
Oklahoma and TCU are the two teams everyone has at the top this year, for good
reason. Oklahoma is coming off a playoff appearance. They’re ranked 3rd
to start the year, they return Heisman contender Baker Mayfield and the asshole
who broke Melvin Gordon’s record after 1 week, Semaje Perine. While I can definitely see them winning the
conference, I don’t see them as a playoff team. A pretty tough nonconference
schedule includes Houston and Ohio State, and I think they’ll lose at least
once in conference.
The Trevone Boykin era is over in
TCU and Kenny Trill/Hill is expected to take over at QB. The Horned Frogs
should have one of the better defenses in the Big 12 (which isn’t saying much)
and have a more favorable schedule then Oklahoma. Outside of the top 2, there’s
a cluster of teams that are really tough to rank. Baylor just went through a
shitstorm this offseason, lost a bunch of recruits and have new coach. They
still return talent in QB Seth Russell and RB Shock Linwood, amongst others and
should still finish in the top half of the conference. I think an improved
Texas team in Charlie Strong’s 3rd season and Oklahoma State will
round out the top half of this conference. The only teams in this conference I
don’t see making bowl games are Iowa State and of course, Kansas. The most
interesting thing about Kansas this year will be seeing if they hit the over
for wins, which Vegas set at 1.5 after they went winless last year. They should
beat FCS Rhode Island in week 1, but if they don’t beat Ohio (a bowl team last
year) in week 2, that 2nd win is gonna be tough to find.
The Pick:
Despite TCU having a more favorable schedule, I still like Oklahoma to win the
conference. October 1st is when Oklahoma and TCU meet, and that game
will probably be the one that decides this conference in the end.
Pac-12
The Pac-12 is one of my favorite
conferences in college football. I don’t really like any specific team so much,
I mainly like the Pac -12 because it brings us #Pac12AfterDark. Just when you think the day of college
football should be over, the Pac 12 brings us one more game that will usually
go until about 1 or 2 am. For the degenerate gambler, if you had a bad day,
it’s glory’s last shot. While the Pac-12 does provide plenty of shoot-outs,
most defenses are better than those found in the Big 12, making the over/unders
a little tougher to call.
This year in the Pac-12 is going to
be interesting. I only really see one team-Stanford as a true playoff
contender, although their schedule to start is pretty brutal. Stanford has a
game they should win, but won’t be easy in week 1 vs. Kansas State. After that,
the schedule really doesn’t let up until Oct. 22 against Colorado. After
getting through that tough early stretch, they’ll also have a trip to Oregon waiting for them in
November. Despite the schedule, Stanford is still the favorite because they
have Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey put up ridiculous numbers last year and
should make a return trip to NYC as a Heisman finalist this year.
Oregon had a bit of a down year last
year and after the Vernon Adams experiment last year are bringing in another
FCS transfer QB. The defense struggled
last year, blew a huge lead against TCU in the Alamo Bowl, and now bring in
Brady Hoke to be the savior at defensive coordinator. I’m not sure I see that
going well, however maybe Hoke is better suited at coordinator. A lot of people are high on Washington this
year. There’s also a lot of people who are
high in Washington this year. They get a slight boost because of a
really weak non-conference schedule (Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State) and did
play pretty good defense last year. They ended up 7-6, which it seems like they
are almost every year. I’ll bump them up to 9-3 but I still don’t see them making
the Rose Bowl or even winning their division. One sleeper team I do like is
Washington State. They won 9 games last year-while the schedule might make that
tough to repeat, they’ll be a tough out. The Cougars will throw the ball 50
times a game like a typical Mike Leach team, and have a really good QB
returning in Luke Falk. I also am going
to enjoy watching Gary Andersen and Oregon State go 3-9 this year.
I see the South division being a
3-team race between UCLA, USC, and Utah. UCLA has sophomore Josh Rosen at QB,
who a lot of people project to be a high draft pick when he enters. USC has lot
of talent, (as always) including JuJu Smith-Schuster and Adoree Jackson but I
think they’ll disappoint as usual. Utah will be strong on the offensive and
defensive lines but is replacing a lot at the skill positions.
My pick:
Stanford over UCLA in the championship game. Stanford has Christian McCaffrey,
these other teams don’t.
ACC
This is going to be a 2-team race,
and the two teams in the race happen to play in the same division. Oct. 29 is
when Clemson travels to Florida State. This game will decide the conference. I
really don’t see anyone else as a real threat to either of these teams. Clemson
returns their backfield of Deshaun Watson (likely the Heisman favorite) and
Wayne Gallman. Dalvin Cook is back at RB for Florida State, but they will
likely be starting a freshman at QB in Deondre Francois. I’ve noticed people
saying that this could be the first league to get two teams in the playoff, but
I’m not buying it. There would really need to be a lot to happen before the
committee would even consider that, and I don’t think the ACC is a strong
enough conference to boost a resume of a division runner-up. As far as a
sleeper team, Louisville is one to watch but they happen to play in the same
division as FSU and Clemson.
Whoever wins the other division is
going to be a heavy underdog in the ACC championship game. North Carolina is a
popular pick, but they’re gonna have to replace Marquise Williams at QB, who
will be playing his final game with the Packers this week. I’ll go with
Pittsburgh to win the coastal. Even though they are a perennial 6-6 team, I
think they’ll ride the momentum of RB James Conner beating cancer and Pat
Narduzzi is a really good coach.
My pick:
Clemson over Pitt. This will be the year of Deshaun Watson (even though last
year kinda was already).
SEC
On to the SEC. I could make a bunch
of jokes about how their fanbase is a bunch of
inbred, unintelligent hillbillies , but I’ll stay away from that so I
don’t disrespect the 20% of their fanbase that aren’t. The SEC does play pretty good football. The
2:30 game on CBS is usually a must-see game. For as good as the SEC is
(primarily the west division), it’s getting a little tiring seeing Alabama win
it every year. They’re the favorite again this year, ranked #1 in the country
to start the season. They lose a lot from last year including Heisman winner
Derrick Henry, but they just reload under Nick Saban. The only time in his life
that he’s smiled is when he won the National Championship last year. Here’s
what’s gonna happen: Alabama will lose a game in the first half of the year
(likely to Ole Miss), slip in the rankings a little bit, and then they’ll beat
LSU, run the table through the regular season, beat an overmatched SEC east
division team in the conference championship, and wind up in the playoff. If
that doesn’t happen I’ll be shocked. As for the rest of the conference, LSU is
ranked highly to start the year. They’ve got one of the best NFL RB prospects
in a long time in Leonard Fournette carrying the offense. And he will have to
carry the offense, because ever since the great Matt Flynn left Baton Rouge,
LSU’s quarterback play has been brutal and I don’t see it getting much better
this season. It doesn’t help their playoff chances having to open up their
season at Lambeau against a 4-star gunslinger like Bart Houston and Wisconsin.
Ole Miss does have the best QB in
the conference in Chad Kelly, they have an outside shot as well. They get
Alabama at home this year on Sept. 17. Texas A&M is another sleeper.
They’ll be lead by Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight at QB (who lit up Alabama in
the Sugar Bowl a few years ago) and one of the best defensive players in the
country in Myles Garrett.
As far as the east division goes,
Tennessee is the favorite, but by default. This division just isn’t that good.
There’s a few new coaches in Kirby Smart at Georgia and Will Muschamp at South
Carolina. I don’t think they’ll contend this year. Florida has a great defense
but has no offense. At least for them, Treon Harris transferred so the
quarterback play can’t possibly be worse than it was last year. I feel like every August I hear that
Tennessee is ready to make the next step, and they finish right around 8-4 or
7-5. This year I think they’ll be better
than that (in large part because of a weak division). Josh Dobbs and Jalen Hurd
should be one of the best backfields in the country this year.
My Pick:
Alabama over Tennessee in the championship game. I’d love to see it be somebody else, but it’s
just not smart to bet against Saban.
Big
Ten
Now, finally we get to the best
conference in college football. This conference is what football is all about.
The heartland of America (I still don’t consider Maryland and Rutgers real Big
Ten teams). History. Tradition. The original college football conference. Fans
who get up to tailgate at the crack of dawn for 11 AM games because TV networks
don’t think 10-6 defensive struggles are worthy of prime-time television. This
is America. The experts had been down on the Big Ten for a while, but it is
back and it is strong this year. This year the “experts” seem to be split on
Ohio State and Michigan as the favorite. JT Barrett takes full control of the Ohio
offense this year now that Cardale Jones doesn’t have to play school anymore.
They do replace a lot of starters from last year’s team, but they’re similar to
Alabama in how they don’t really rebuild, they reload. They also steal recruits.
If Antonio Williams (4-star RB who decommitted from Wisconsin, now at Ohio
State) gets any touches this year at Camp Randall an Oct. 15th , I
can’t wait to hear how loud those boos will be.
Michigan will have one of the best
defenses in the country, led by Jabrill Peppers. Harbaugh hasn’t publicly named
his starting QB yet, however that probably won’t matter. He can seem to coach
anybody up to be a serviceable starter. The magic he worked with Jake Rudock
last year was pretty amazing, considering that Rudock was a pretty shitty QB at
Iowa before 2015. Michigan State is pretty much the consensus #3 pick in the
East. They’ll have a strong defense as always, but the offense will be the
question mark this year. Connor Cook is finally gone so the QB job now falls to
Tyler O’Conner, who did see some time last year when Cook was hurt. One thing
in MSU’s favor is they have an extremely favorable home schedule in conference.
Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan, and Ohio State all have to travel to East
Lansing (my least favorite place in the Big Ten, btw). Penn State couldn’t find
a way to contend with Christian Hackenberg at QB (they couldn’t protect him),
and I don’t see them really contending this year either. Saquon Barkley will be
one of the better RBs in the conference, but that’s not enough to compete with
Ohio State or Michigan in this division. I think Indiana has another 6-6 year
in them, and like last year they will make some games with ranked teams
interesting because of their offense. Maryland and Rutgers aren’t real Big Ten
teams so that is all I’m going to say about them.
The West division is wide open. The
media’s favorite is Iowa. They do return several starters from last year’s team
that got embarrassed at the Rose Bowl last year, including QB CJ Beathard and
CB Desmond King. Luckily for them, Christian McCaffrey doesn’t play in the Big Ten. They’ll have a
good record this year with the help of a weak non-conference schedule.
(Toughest opponent is actually North Dakota State, 5-time defending FCS
champs). Nebraska is entering the 2nd year of the Mike Riley era.
They should be improved because I don’t think it’s possible to lose as many
games via hail marys/crazy finishes the way they did last year. Tommy Armstrong
is back but I don’t think he’s consistent enough to take this team to the next
level. One game I’m really looking forward to is when the Huskers travel to
Madison on Oct. 29th. Already have Russell Wilson spoiling their Big
Ten Debut, put up a 70-spot on them in the Big Ten Championship, Melvin Gordon
breaking the single game rushing record in 3 quarters, and our fat kicker’s
redemption kick last year. Can’t wait to see what the next chapter is in the
battle for the Freedom Trophy.
Northwestern was a strange team last
year. They beat Stanford in the opener last year on their way to a 10-win
season (should’ve been 9, Jazz Peavy caught that pass). They didn’t really look
all that impressive but won games with defense and RB Justin Jackson, one of
the better backs in the conference. They’ll play teams tough this year, but
their wins will decrease. They have to travel to Iowa, Michigan State, and Ohio
State this year. Minnesota will probably be a 6-6 or 7-5 bowl team this year,
but that’s about it, because they’re Minnesota. That’s their ceiling.
(Herbstreit picked them to win the division this year, which is crazy).They do
have a little bit of stability at QB as Mitch Leidner returns this season.
Illinois might actually be relevant now because of Lovie Smith, but it’ll
likely be a few years before they’re actually competitive. It’ll also be nice
as a fan to beat Lovie Smith annually again. For Purdue, this is likely the
last shot for coach Darrell Hazell to make the Boilers competitive. He’s what
the folks in the journalism biz call “on the hot seat”. West Lafayette is a
tough place to win, but it can be done. Things were actually going pretty well
for Purdue up until Scott Starks scooped up Kyle Orton’s fumble and took it to
the house. But…that was about 12 years ago.
Of course I had to save the best for
last. The Wisconsin Badgers. All everyone has talked about this offseason is
the schedule. It’s brutal. Opening up with LSU, and then starting conference
play with Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and
Northwestern is probably the toughest stretch I’ve ever seen in the Big Ten. I
included Northwestern because the game is in Evanston and the Badgers never win
there, so I’ve chalked that one up as a loss. Bart Houston is the week 1
starter, and we’ll see how long that lasts. He played OK (not great by any
means) against Illinois last year. This year he gets thrown right into the fire
against LSU, but if anybody can do it, it’s a quarterback named Bart at
Lambeau. Another brutal part of the opener is that last year’s DC Dave Aranda
is now running the defense at LSU. I’d assume he knows the Badger offense
pretty well, hopefully Paul Chryst has been working on some new tricks in the
offseason. The running game last year was the worst I can remember seeing for a
Wisconsin team. It should be better this year with a healthy Corey Clement.
Receiver hasn’t been a real strong part of Wisconsin offenses lately, and now
it’s time for Rob Wheelwright and Jazz Peavy to step up into bigger roles this
year. They did show flashes of potential last year, now they’ll have to do it
consistently. One thing I’m interested to see is if any freshman WRs see the
field. WR Coach Ted Gilmore has apparently said they “hit the jackpot” with
this year’s new receivers. I expect to
see some improvement from the offensive line this year, although Dan Voltz
having to retire early because of injury will hurt. Their best lineman this
year might end up being Ryan Ramczyk, a transfer from UW-Stevens Point.
On the defensive side, the front
seven should be strong, led by Vince Biegel, Jack Cichy and Chris Orr at
linebacker. The question marks are in the secondary, especially at safety.
D’Cota Dixon and Leo Musso have been inconsistent when given playing time in
the past will have to improve now that they’re gonna be the regular starters.
My Big Ten
Pick: Michigan over Wisconsin in Indy. I think this is the year Harbaugh lifts
Michigan back to the top of the conference. The only reason I have the Badgers
making it to Indy is I listen to way too much ESPN Madison radio and the former
Badgers on those shows have me convinced that this is going to be a great team,
despite the brutal schedule.
My Final
Four: Clemson, Michigan, Stanford, Alabama
Championship:
Clemson over Stanford
Week
1 Picks
Wisconsin (+11) over LSU- Badgers can keep it within
10 with the help of the Lambeau crowd.
Houston (+11.5) over Oklahoma-This is going to be a
1-score game.
Alabama (-11.5) over USC-I think USC is overrated,
Alabama should win this easily
Fresno State (+28) over Nebraska-there’s no way Nebraska
is 28 points better than an FBS team in week 1.
Bones Guarantee of the Week (The pick I like that’s definitely
gonna be wrong)
Louisiana-Lafayette
(+20)
over Boise State- I like this because the Ragin Cajuns are at home and the game
kicks at 11 am. Kinda reminds me of last year’s Stanford-Northwestern week 1
game, making a team from the west play early. I always think ULL is a solid
team, (Probably because
they used to play well in the New Orleans Bowl like every year)even though they
went 4-8 last year. But…since it’s a Bones Guarantee Boise will end up covering
easily.
